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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Message Board

  • hangmaniceman1 hangmaniceman1 Nov 26, 2012 10:46 PM Flag

    I buy extreme pessimism and sell extreme optimism...

    I don't know what the H*&^ is going on but this stock caught my attention due to extreme pessimism. Hedge funds, High Frequency Trading houses, Algo shops, Pro Short-Sellers at work as usual and I can see their only goal is to make money off of investor fear and greed. They simply prey on the emotional nature of markets and obviously they are trying to drive this stock to the ground--only to rip them higher once massive unsuspecting investors place their chips short before they know what happened using Dark Pools.

    It is laughable that many are comparing Intc and Amd as if Intc just started making faster chips than Amd. For crying out loud, as long as I've known Amd, it's always been a only competitor and alternative to Intc--and Amd always has had challenges of its own along the way but the BOD, senior management, and people at Amd always found a way to over come them time after time--and nothing will be different this time around, etc.

    Intc is 75x bigger than Amd by market cap and 9x higher in revenue. Needless to say, Intc is a juggernaut and I imagine from a strategic point of view, I would argue that it is Intc who's facing bigger challenges than Amd. Unlike Intc, Amd is smaller, nimbler, flexible and adaptable orginization that are better able to make needed changes in timely manner and whenever necesssary--supported by thousands of proprietary patterns, unique chip designs, and dedicated employees, etc.

    Certainly, Amd is trying to adapt to this rapdily changing competitive environment but I have no doubt that the Bod and Manaement and People at the Amd will once again overcome this temporary obstacle and continue to be known throughout the world as a premier semiconductor company.

    For crying loud, I imagine AMD name alone (brand recognition/intangible value) is worth the currrent market cap. From a strategic point of view, Amd has just too many options. Ironically, the biggest company by market cap in U.S. is Aapl who is nothing more than an "asembler" of "foreign made parts." Amd is an innovator lead by dedicated and harding working American people--providing good paying jobs and producing American product that we all can be proud of, etc.

    I said watch-out, you hedge funds, HFT houses, Algo shops, and Pro Short-Sellers--you are way to close to the fire not to get burned. Don't underestimate people at the AMD! They always been here and they always will be here.

    I am going to buy 50k shares tomorrow and put away for year or two or more if necessary-- and I humbly call on institutional money managers and retail investors do the same.


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    • Under ordinary stock conditions, you'd be correct in being a contrarian investor. But you better listen carefully this time. It's no longer the same. AMD just might have run out of rope this time. They've even hired the world's biggest bankruptcy house - JP Morgan - to find a way out. That's a big deal. Real big.

      Your thesis holds little water and you could drown this time.

      "Don't underestimate people at the AMD! They always been here and they always will be here."

      Don't YOU overestimate them!!! In your own words, Amd has always been under water and have pulled a rabit out. Here's my best comeback. "To everything, there's a beginning, a middle, and AN END."

      Amd has pulled a hundred rabbits out. Numerous loans, convertible debentures, leveraged assets, sold more shares, sold fabs, sold divisions, and hyped its way along. All that is behind them. There's not much else Amd can sell - except perhaps ATI at a great great loss. Money is not readily available due to AMD's low credit rating. Their cash is very sharply dwindling. Their layoffs are record high and rising. They are several years and several shrinks behind intel (which is accelerating even faster ahead lately). AMD's GF is boardering on BK and are many years behind. Amd is forced to turn to other higher priced fabs. AMD has almost nothing of sufficiently high value to sell - including patents. AMD needs literally billions to catch up. If JPM has a brain, they will first milk AMD and then advise them to liquidate. Even if JPM doesn't do that, AMD's creditors have both the power and the urgency to inflict an INVOLUNTARY bankruptcy order on AMD. They have billions to lose and wont just sit there idle and witness AMD's last billion cash go down the drain. It can even be on autopilot as we speak.

      So, if your investment philosophy is carried out (50K shares tomorrow), you damn well better be prepared to take the very first exit if AMD goes up briefly a few pennies! (Be a rapid trader). If you intend to hold, there's a 90% chance you will lose over half of your money before you bail.

      You are a simpleton investor. You have NOT done your DD. That will likely cost you very dearly!


    • Well said, I couldn't have said it better myself. Welcome to the AMD long family.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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