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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Message Board

  • hamptonus hamptonus May 3, 2013 4:59 PM Flag

    let's not get silly

    I am long this stock, but don't get it all twisted. There is no fundamental basis at all for the latest run up. AMD is becoming a custom chip maker? Great. They'll compete with NVIDIA, Qualcomm, TI, Samsung, etc etc. How's that working for those companies? This is purely a technical bounce. Enjoy the cocaine while it lasts, your parents are coming home soon and we'll be back to $2 before you know it.

    And oh yeah, that whole "AMD is providing PS4 and XBox chips!" argument? Dude they've been providing X360 chips for like 7 years now. That's already baked into the price.

    This is still the same over indebted company as always that will never pay a dividend, never buy back shares, and never return any value to its owners. The only way to make money on this stock is find a greater fool than yourself, and luckily there are a lot of those out there at the moment.

    Short term buy, long term sell.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • basis for run up is same as the precipitous fall. just cuz. stock was 8 bucs not long ago.

    • perhaps there was no fundamental basis for such a drop

    • hamptonus,
      You are largely correct to remain pessimistic about everything-AMD, with one big exception. AMD probably CAN compete with the likes of Qualcom, Ti, and Samsung for one reason. There is no doubt that AMD has superior cpu/graphics/flash mass production experience. Not at all that AMD could bust intel's fab superiority. That's not the point here. AMD did the best it could without intel's vastly better fabs. I'd venture to assert that Qualcom - Samsung cannot compete with AMD's failed experiences - recalling that failed experiences are sometimes far better in helping others than successful experiences.

      Lastly, never forget that if AMD enters the custom world with all their goodies, AMD opens doors to markets literally EIGHT TIMES THE SIZE OF intel. (Over $300B). With intel off AMD's back, AMD has a 10-fold better chance of surviving, whereas AMD was literally HOPELESS for decades. Now there's a 10X better chance.

      If you want to be emotionally stuck on stupid, you have numerous company on this board. Sounds like a closed mind to me.


    • reversals happen when volume gets smaller. It's getting bigger.

    • I think the current run up is temporary and will fall a bit when big boys stops buying. and new investors who bought in recently panics and sell off as well.
      they did announce several things that looks promising, but no actual result proven as of yet to justify a 50% run up in 2 weeks. (I love it)
      I sold yesterday, made a very nice profit :), still can't believe it, $7k in the greens for May so far.

      • 4 Replies to frankkuorch
      • I respect your view, but you are wrong on this one. There are solid fundamentals (money generation) behind AMD. They are coming in so suddenly that it has taken everyone by surprise. So far only rumors, but there is hard evidence if you know where to look.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • you are forgetting how oversold AMD became when it dropped like lead from above $4 and that even at $9/share it is a very cheap company based on price to sales. Once AMD shows any inkling of breakeven or heaven forbid, profitability, the share price will return quickly to the low double digits.

        All you've seen with the current rally is the imminent bankruptcy discount being partially removed so the 2 handle is gone (possibly forever) and the 3 handle is about to be gone as well.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Why would anyone want to sell before AMD shows a profit in Q 3? You will only pay more later.

        AMD has been off the street radar and is just starting to get back on that radar again. The closer we get to those profits being posted, the higher we will go.

        Do you think the big boys are buying because we will drop lower? Any pullback will be short lived.

        Don't you think the big boys are buying in because once earnings are released in Q 3 we will have a large jump up?

        We might not even wait until the Q3 report. When the Q2 report comes out, it will give us guidance into Q3.

        What do you think will happen when the guidance in the Q2 report says revenue will increase in Q 3 and AMD will return to profitability? We will take off and those buying and holding now will have a nice ride up. We will get another jump up when the actual Q 3 profit is recorded.

        If you sold yesterday, that is your choice. I believe you will be looking back and wishing you hung on.

        In February 2009 AMD was at the low and climbed 440% by December 3009. How many people sold at a 40% -50% profit but missed out on another 400%?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • There's quite a bit to justify the run-up actually.

        Why is it that those who have sold the stock always speak as though they predict the stock will go down? You sold prematurely. Deal with it. Congrats on the gains, but you could have held out for way more. This is going to the 5's relatively quick.

    • Getting killed on your short, huh?

      Must be for that load of manure you just shoveled onto this board with that post.

    • You sound like your caught short.. otherwise you would sell here and wait for a dip to buy back in.. not come in here and try to change stock sentiment.. Or maybe you sold and don't want the stock to rise anymore (very likely)..

      AMD has been providing only the graphics for the Xbox 360 and sales have slipped because the console has been out for 7 years and saturated the market (everyone already owns one).. However in the PS4 and XBOX 720 AMD will be providing both the system and graphics processing, (only graphics on the Wii U) which should give better margins. The consoles are also the first update in 7 years with high interest from gamers itching for a refresh/upgrade, sales should be very strong.

      AMD also has Temash in the pipeline along with a ARM64bit-X86 hybrid CPU that should really shake things up. AMD prospects look great for 2013... In fact we are right on tract to a repeat of 2009 (last time AMD went green, oddly also during Q3)..

      So I'm not sure exactly what your talking about, unless your hoping for dip for a buy back or caught short.

3.60-0.14(-3.74%)May 3 4:00 PMEDT