This was on Seeking Alpha today.
AMD slumps following chip delay report • 12:09 PM
Digitimes reports the arrival of low-end desktop CPUs based on AMD's (AMD -4.3%) recently-launched (28nm) Kabini architecture has been pushed back to March '14 from 2H13. Moreover, the arrival of Beema, Kabini's successor (also 28nm), has been pushed back to 1H15 from 2H14.
The site also reports AMD's high-end Hawaii GPUs will launch at the end of September; that's in-line with recent reports. Hawaii is pivotal to AMD's efforts to take back high-end GPU share from Nvidia's (NVDA -1%) Kepler GPUs. Nvidia is expected to launch its next-gen Maxwell GPU line in Q1 2014, and might refresh its Kepler lineup later this year.
Digitimes reported last month the launch of AMD's Kaveri CPUs (based on the 28nm Steamroller architecture and aimed at mid-range/high-end PCs) could be delayed until Feb. '14. Kaveri's successor, Carrizo (based on the 28nm Excavator architecture), is due in 2015.
CPU delays serve to extend Intel's (INTC -1.1%) manufacturing process edge over AMD. Intel is in the midst of ramping production of its second-gen 22nm Haswell CPUs, and is expected to launch its 14nm Broadwell CPUs in 2H14. 22nm and (subsequently) 14nm Atom CPUs are also on tap.
It is viciously sold short... because it is overvalued even at this price. It could dive below $3.
This is an interesting stock to play... those who sold it short at $4.40 are making a killing right now.
Gee, let's see...AMD is a company that hasn't made money in more than a year and has recently disclosed by engaging in a surprise real estate sale that it's chip operations cannot return it to profitability in Q3 despite management's earlier promises. Oh, and add to that the fact that the margins already went to the dogs BEFORE low margin console chips were in the mix, and you have a company whose fair values based on peer company valuation metrics is around $1.50.
This is called a "correction". AMD's price is going to fall to a fair value somewhere south of $2. You can either learn from this or lose money because of this. The choice is yours. Either way, AMD is dying.
There are rumors of product delays till 2014, you couple that with the current market condition today and the amount of short sellers out there it's not a surprise it's down 5%.
My guess is AMD put their focus on the Xbox & Sony chips for upcoming holiday season so everything else takes a backseat for now, unlike Intel their resources are limited.
If you are long there is a lot you are not seeing. Today it was the cash flow comment combined with overall market negativity. Also the short interest showed a huge recent spike in AMD. People that trade for a living are not expecting much from AMD.