First off, if you're not short this pig, you're stupid.
Second, if you're short, cover and take some profits on the 18th. Your target cover price is right at $3. The stock will slide to that range the day after earnings since AMD will miss and offer lamer than usual excuses as to what the numbers actually mean.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Gap Down Friday is a given. We will really have to look at a few numbers to see how bad things really are behind the scenes. The Revenue miss is almost a given. I expect a minimum miss of 6% but it could be as high as 10% since many computer makers that cater to AMD chips had some really way-out declines 30%.
The second number, after revenue, will be the margins on the game consoles. Game consoles 'only' account for 10% revenue this year but ramp up to 20% next year. So eyes will focus on margins for this chips--it is suspected to be tight but anything below 25% will be horrendous news.
The third will be margins on desk/lap chips. In the past these were pretty healthy but with INTC sqeezing the market these will be seen to be falling. But how far?
In my opinion this quarter will mark the turning point where hindsight will show AMD really got hurt and could never recover.
All other revenue from servers, graphics, tablets, etc is miniscule.this quarter
AMD is a highly volatile stock. Which is why I like to trade it. Short term you can make money long or short if you can time the swings. Long term I just don't believe AMD has the financial muscle to take market share away from 800 pound gorillas without reorganizing and dumping all its debt. That means shareholder value goes to zero. AMD is falling further and further behind its competitors. AMD just came out with a high end graphics card..how long ago did NVidia come out with theirs? How is AMD going to compete when its tech is falling farther and farther behind INTC? .22nm vs 18nm? C'mon, the writing is on the wall.
Not one single self-proclaimed long has said that the have sold AMD. The only way to make a killing on any stock is to close out your position, long or short. Ergo, none of the pumpwads on this board, if they really do hold AMD shares, have made a killing. So yes, to the extent they haven't taken this two-day "gift" and bailed on AMD, they are indeed stupid.
I'm short AMD at $8 and change. Many other shorts, too, are short this pig i the $6 to $8 range. I covered half my position at $2 last time the stock touched there (on its way to $1.81; who knew?), and will finish my position the next time the shares fall below $2. My best guess, based on AMD's lack of any material progress on ARM based architecture and continued loss of market share to Intel in bread & butter segments, is that we'll see $2 and below by 2H 2014.
Sentiment: Strong Sell