So, the market seems to think fair market value of ACOR is around $28/share based on projected sales of Ampyra. But what's the value of other assets? Cash, research facilities and early-phase pipeline drugs for remyelination? What would it cost Biogen, or some other big company, to buy all the assets of Acordia? Certainly more than $28/share. But how much more? Can a phase I or II drug candidate even be considered an asset of financial value? If remyelination works, it could make Ampyra look like peanuts. But that dream drug is years away.
Normally I'd say no, but right now I'd say wait and see. If Ampyra can provide enough cash flow to keep the company running, while running these early-stage trials, then the usual pitfall for this type of company (running out of time / money before the trial is complete, then having to refinance on bad terms) is significantly reduced. In that scenario, you've got a low-risk investment with a chance of major payoff later.
At the moment, I think the idea of "projected sales" is moot, until Acorda make their pricing policy known. In a month or so, we'll know that better, so then projected sales may start actually meaning something.
Also, as I've posted before, you've also got a significant (but hard to quantify) asset - a team of people who have managed to get a drug through what was a quite tricky approval. Before I got into buying Bio's, I didn't realise just how much damage a bad team can do to even a sound product.
Thanks for the insight. And a good point about the team value.
Also, I miswrote about the remyelination pipeline. It's all still preclinical--a project with promise more so than a drug prospect at this point. Still, that's the holy grail for MS. Potentially of great value if it becomes a drug. Until then, it's potentially a great expense to develop and get through trials over a period of years. So, I think we can see where at least some of the Ampyra profits are going to go, unless a larger company buys out ACOR and mothballs the remyelination project. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine remyelination totally going away, since it draws in a lot of funding from the hopeful.
For what it's worth, I've got MS, which is how I learned about ACOR. My neurologist says remyelination is a pipe dream that sucks funding away from more realistic treatment options. He's very positive on the prospects for Ampyra helping MS patients like me. Still, the national MS society, and I, would like to see a cure rather than treatment that drags on for the life of the patient at great expense. Yes, there would seem to be multiple conflicts of interest in regard to treating, preventing or curing multiple sclerosis. The optimist would say there's never been a better time to have MS because there are treatment options. The pessimist would say I'm a goose popping out golden eggs for a rich neurologist and richer big pharma as I shoot up with expensive Betaseron, hoping it keeps me from getting worse, stumbling around half blind, face-planting on the pavement and sometimes pissing myself in public. Oh well, any profit I make on ACOR will likely end up going to insurance copays. And if Ampyra works to improve my life, and the side effects aren't too bad, and I can afford it, I'll take it.