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Permanent Portfolio Message Board

  • petcmc petcmc Apr 11, 2012 11:03 AM Flag

    This Red-Hot Fund Could Suddenly Turn Cold

    I am staying with this fund as other balenced funds have heavy bond holdings that I feel will tumble as rates rise. What do others think? Bail out or hold?

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    • It's not an Either/Or. Evaluate your risk tolerance, and decide how low you can tolerate the dip. The other thing to consider is volatility. If it's a fund that can "bounce" back fast, and if it's performance is in line with the market as a whole, may as well hang on. On the other hand if it hasn't shown such an ability, I'd get out before you lose half of your investment.

      Having taking the trip to the bottom with Heebner's CGM Fund as well as one of the gold mutual funds (no load but exhorbitant transaction fees), I've seen the advantages of swallowing your pride and putting money to work rather than leaving it with a wounded and expensive loser.

    • It depends why you have the fund. I hold it as 20% of my retirement accounts, giving me 5% PM exposure. I balance the rest of the funds in my 401k and Roth IRA to approximate a typical 2030 Target fund. So it is buy & hold for me.

    • No need to bail out but you definitely need to lower your expectations. Unless you believe that the price of price of gold, and of a mutual fund, can rise forever, Permanent is actually poised to produce certain but mediocre, or even poor, results. If the markets continue to stabilize, this fund will most likely under-perform, returning less than market averages. Its assets are over-priced or fairly valued and are not positioned to "grow" with an improving economy. As a result, "Permanent" is best viewed as a "hedge" against turbulent markets, such as those we experienced 2008-2009.

      Over 90% of fund managers can't even match the market averages. Permanent could quickly be in the same boat if a thriving economy tarnished the lure of gold while bonds and Treasury bills took a back seat to stocks.

      I'd say that Permanent is good because it gives you some gold exposure and action but is more stable than an ETF like GLD or a closed-end fund like PHYS (Sprott Physical Gold bars). The fund seems to protect your principal quite well, but that doesn't mean you'll do any better than you would in an ordinary bank savings account. Even Warren Buffett cautions investors in BRK that there's no way he can match his spectacular past results.

    • I doubt you will see any meaningful rate increases over the next 12 to 18 months. This funds is a great foundation over the long haul.

      Good Luck with your investments

    • It's a buy and hold fund. You don't market time it. IMO

 
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