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TRI Pointe Homes, Inc. Message Board

  • abcs.learning abcs.learning Jun 25, 2013 11:44 AM Flag

    Just increased their total lots by 10% - up to 2,300

    $62ML in revenues will come out of the Irvine project during 2013; $62.75ML in 2014 out of the other project in Vacaville. Pretty soon the handfuls add up - $60ML here, a $100ML there; Irvine, CA, then Denver, CO, then the SF Bay Area, then Silicon Valley. I am waiting for one lovely short squeeze between here and 2x book value at $19.45/share.

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    • As a matter of fact - let's put this down for the record books and see if it holds? June 24, 2013 - $14.24/share, trading at 1.47xbook; quarterly growth rate (yoy) = 500%. And investors were selling it hand over fist for a month - straight down from 20.45 to 14.24 - on a 30% pullback. KBH, TPH, and SPF are the leading indicators for the CA market; and the last 3 months have witnessed the most explosive sales in 7 years. Rising interest rates will only INCREASE the sales as buyers jump off the fence. TPH in 2013 will be a surrogate equal to KBH in 2012. The shorts have created a remarkable buying opportunity here for those who can afford to add to their shares.

      • 1 Reply to abcs.learning
      • So here we are 4 days later, up 16% from Monday to $16.58 on Friday, on 2.5x average daily volume, on a day when the Dow is down over a 100. It just goes to show that you buy good companies when they are down (maybe only when they are down) and hold on to them. I never would have figured this one to break $16 on the downside. It's fundamentals - its markets - are too strong. My original target was $25 by the end of the year. Maybe it still is.

14.90-0.10(-0.67%)Jul 6 4:02 PMEDT