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Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) Message Board

  • insidergenius12345 insidergenius12345 Aug 17, 2005 11:04 AM Flag

    blowout earnings coming

    Every department store retailer except for WMT reported great numbers. And WMT missed because they are losing market share to the other stores not because of oil.

    The market has priced in bad earnings. If they match or beat we will see a 10% pop.

    Take it to the bank.

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    • Well "genius", from your moniker we can ascertain that you can at least count to 5, impressive for a SHLD long! Sorry, that was uncalled for and hurtful, accurate and truthful maybe, but still not nice.

      Back to the topic, with continued negative SSS, SHLD can not show long term positive earnings simply with cost cutting without asset sales. In retail, you do have minimum fixed costs (property tax, lease cost, transportation, insurance, etc.) which can not be driven down with out sacrificing the underlying asset.

      Now let's look at the pecking order for retailers and the likely impact on sales. KMRT wants the poorest, illiterate, unsophisticated consumers they can find. This is based on their marketing efforts to non-English speaking, non-mobile population found only in the most depressed immigrant and inner-city areas. This group is very dynamic, rapidly growing out of these limits to the next level, WalMart/Sears shoppers. WalMart showed gains on retailing, just not as large as some analyst divined. Sears is suffering from competition on all sides, Mall based, Plaza based, soft lines (Kohls for example), hard lines (Lowes & Home Depot), appliance (Best Buy, Lowes, Home D).

      Short version - KMRT SSS down, cost down minimally because they have already been cut, earnings down. SEARS SSS down, cost down significantly (2 to 4 qtr effect since declining SSS will catch up with reduced cost soon), earnings flat to modestly up. For SHLD, unless they show asset sales earnings should be flat with a +/- of about 3%. Alternately, large reorg cost could be moved into qtr to show significantly negative numbers and used to camouflage how bad it really is.

      Bull Chip

    • WMT is losing market share and SHLD is gaining it??? That was a good laugh.

    • Thanks for the laugh, that was the best post of the day

 
SHLD
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