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Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) Message Board

  • vinodkcm vinodkcm Aug 19, 2010 4:13 PM Flag

    Did't someone say SHLD would be the next Berkshire??


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    • No, don't think he cares about me (but I bet he likes me more than the naked shorts)

      WHere was that 70 B WMT cash flow figure from?

      Just because you made money shorting sears from 100 to 62 (congratulations! in hindsight, I wish I had done the same) does not mean that the company is dying any time soon.

      call it 5.8 billion in debt, including pension obligations, that's rounding up.

      over a billion is at less than 3% - short term debt. hell, money is next to free right now.

      that's a 30 million annual interest fee.. the long term debt is at 5-7%, or another 75 million.

      so, with 500 million in cash flow, we have to pay 105-120 million per year in interest, and another 150 million towards pension funds.

      let's call it 300 million.

      Not dead yet...

      And then there are the assets...

      If holdings ever needed a billion cash, I'm sure some PE type would love to buy Kenmore with other people's money and leverage.

    • Forgive say 1.5B 1.0B, 500MM, it doesn't matter.....

      Doesn't matter? Say what?

      Let me tell you why it matters. At $1.5B, the company has enough money to service debt and to continue share repurchases. At 1.0, it gets squeezed, but can still apply some funds to longer term objectives. At 500mm, the company won't be able to do a bloody thing....except begin the death spiral in an orderly manner.

      I can see where the longs get their nerve. Nothing matters, not net income, not cash flow, just that Eddie is "doing the right thing" with shareholder money. Like buying shares at $130 per? Buying collateralized debt obligations? At the end of the day, do you think Eddie Lampert gives one shiny turd about you and yours? I'll give you a's a yes/no question and the answer has two letters...

      IF this company pulls off a miracle of a Q4 then I guess we're in agreement. If not, then you've wasted your time and money.

      I've done very well with this stock, and I don't think I'm quite done.

    • Canada will have over 300 m.
      Holdings owns 91% of that.

      Why exactly will this year be so much worse than last when they pulled in 1.6 in the final quarter?

      FYI, I prefer IPA to table sherry.

      My prediction was just that, a prediction, and it doesn't affect my investment thesis one iota if it's 1.5 Billion, 1 billion, or 500 million. The money is being spent on shareholders' interests, not dumbo acquisitions at 99x future earnings.

      Speaking of outrageous cash flow numbers,
      Where exactly did you get the 70 B cash flow for wal-mart? "mostly from net income"???

      You posted that earlier on this thread.

      I am glad that someone negative on the company will actually talk about numbers, most of them just talk about dirty stores and shart.

    • YOU SAID:

      Cash flow from operations prediction:

      Conservatively, over one billion dollars.
      Optimistically, over 1.5 B

      I SAID:


      Dude, you've got to lay off the table sherry. 1.5B? That means they'll need to post a $2B nut in the Christmas quarter.....would you like to make a wager of any sort?

      I say, conservatively 680MM, optimistically 775MM. I see where our disagreement is. If I thought they'd generate $1.5B, I'd buy here. For the record, I don't think Eddie is even dreaming of hitting $1B, certainly none of the estimates gets nearly that high. You're on an island with your number sc. You're either a genius or an idiot. Time will tell.....


      Total Cash from Operations $9,895 $12,440 $26,249 $973 $10,019


      Total Cash from Operations $(72) $(107) $1,507 $(82) $(190)

      These comps have been widening for around twenty consecutive quarters...what compels you to think that the trend will reverse itself?

    • Cash flow from operations prediction:

      Conservatively, over one billion dollars.
      Optimistically, over 1.5 B

      Holdings will finish the current buyback and announce another by q4

      With just over 107 million shares out in 2011, (fewer shares if the price stays below $100) that's 9.35 to 14 dollars per share
      or more.
      (all for the low low price of $62 per share)

      Laugh all you want until the end of January 2011.

    • By the way, 2008 was for many the "worst year in memory" for many companies. For Sears, it is clearly 2010. Clearly. Show me another year this bad for this company. Show me. They'll post three consecutive quarters of negative cash flow and earnings. They'll bail themselves out at Christmas and manage maybe 750MM cash flow generated. Then they'll likely post another string of three losers, and the comps will likely continue to deteriorate. No catalyst for fundamental growth here.....none. With no capex to speak of, who is getting excited about this dog of a retailer? They'll continue with the underfunded pension and with the expenses associated with store closings. They'll lose synergy as they shrink, costs per unit will expand, and it will become more difficult to synergize what's left. Not impossible, but not a recipe for success. Certainly not a wise investment choice.

      Good day.

    • YOU WRITE:

      cash flow from operations seems to have been about a billion and a half per year for five years on average.

      It was a billion in 2008, arguably the worst year in recent memory.

      I WRITE:

      You are correct. What is your expectation for this year? Note that we're two quarters in and running a cash flow deficit of a quarter billion, and expecting to add to that in the next quarter.....

      Please, tell me your expectation for cash flow...this oughta be good.

    • You make absolutely no sense. None. Sorry bub.

      Cash flow of 2.1B in 2006 will be reduced to roughly 750mm this year.

      Look at this, the last five quarters...

      Total Cash from Operations $(72) $(107) $1,507 $(82) $(190)....worst five quarter run in its history, and yes, one one hundredth of what a fabled competitor of theirs will generate.

      THIS IS NOT A CASH GENERATOR. Look at the numbers....please?

    • cash flow from operations seems to have been about a billion and a half per year for five years on average.

      It was a billion in 2008, arguably the worst year in recent memory.

      Free cash flow was less than that, let's call FCF the amount that was spent on shareholders. Buybacks or debt reduction, or acquisitions.

      Cash spent on buybacks and debt and purchasing minority interests is pretty straightforward
      Sure, you can argue that the buybacks were "expensive" because the stock is cheaper now, but management thought they were a reasonable use of capital at the time.
      Chances are that the stock wouldn't have been sold off to 33 bucks if there was still 4 billion cash on the balance sheet, because the company could have cornered the shorts with one buy order:
      "buy 60 million shares at $50"

      so, spending the cash allowed the price to come down.

      What is FCF when calculate as the amount spent on shareholders?
      Not less than 700 million per year on a 7 billion dollar stock at 62 bucks.

      over 700 million in the first half of 2010.

      Like WMT's "70 Billion in cash flow,"
      your numbers are wrong Jbac.

      You are right that the retailer is making some moves that would not be made by traditional GAAP earnings maximizing management.

      You have a good weekend too.

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