Here's my take and disclosure: I was long SHLD--I sold the calls I had before the closing bell today for a small profit. I purchased March $40 puts and sold March $32 puts (I'm selling the volatility).
Even though JCP reported good earnings, JCP and SHLD are very different in that JCP is really trying hard to re-create its brand and its stores are busy (I was just in one the other week). SHLD is not even trying to change--clearly Lampert has other things in store for SHLD (REIT, etc.). I think in the long run SHLD will go up based on its spinoffs, but I think its retail earnings will suffer tomorrow and the stock will go down $6-$10 in the short term and then will turn around and go back to the 60s over the next 3-6 months.
Also, Sears Canada reported bad earnings earlier this week.
Anyway, that's my take and analysis. What is everyone else's take?
Been to Sears lately. Junk. Today I threw away 3 sweaters I bought a couple of years ago. The zippers were corroded and broke off. Same with a leather jacket!!! Strong sell!!!!!!
Lampert avoids questions hiding behind a recording , Seritage is old news, just like Ubiquity and the 2500 Data Centers , 4rth quarter last year was 12.5 billion revenue , they will exceed losses, in less than 2 years SHLD Will be Bankrupt
I think it will move up tomorrow because they must be announcing something more than normal with the pre-recorded conference. They wouldn't prerecord the standard "we are very disappointed and know we need to do more bla bla" And it must be complicated enough to need a presentation. And a few smart buyers have been stepping up buys lately. That said, I'm probably wrong. And long too BTW. Also, I don't really care what happens tomorrow but I do care about the value over the next few months.
They need to talk about a total restructuring of the company or break-up of the company....If they continue to talk about cost cutting and shopper's rewards programs this stock is going to zero...Time is running out.....
I own Puts in SHLD so there is my disclosure. I completely agree and believe that SHLD is a retail play. I also believe Seritage which I am sure will be spoken of tomorrow is the real estate play. People who are long SHLD will get burnt when Seritage is spun off. I seriously doubt Lampert will keep the two intertwined. Hell Sears and Seritage are not mentioned together on the website.
So as far as SHLD retail is concerned I also believe the stock will fall $6-10. Analyst know the real problem is retail. Hell to break it down you can't marry to women you have to divorce one to marry the other. So that beingsaid a divorce for SHLD is in the near future. So Seritage may be awesome one day but SHLD will not be around to see it. SHLD mid 20's in a few months.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Hard to say. Bought a small put position today, thinking weather wreaked havoc with sales, consumers are busy paying down xmas shopping and gas bills, and the run up pre earnings would be exhausted. Long term, who knows. Would say slow march down but Fairholme Fund team aren't idiots so wouldn't bet against them long term. JCP might've bottomed and the SEC issue went away. Agree JCP stores are refreshed, at least the ones I've seen. SHLD doesn't look like it's doing much except treading water. It's like a retailer that seems to want to be in a diff biz.
Congrats on your profit taking. Smart move, lock in some gains. GLT you.
Sentiment: Strong Sell