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Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF Message Board

  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM Flag

    Anyone focused on huge TNA outflows

    that took place mostly in January?? the median date was January 11 with an outflow of approx. $150mm
    typically such ETF outflows are 4-6 weeks early, which would put us at earlier this week for the beginning of a potential multi-week/month sell-off.....all told there have been large outflows that total the net assets of TNA over the span of just a month or so with no large inflows to speak of (just look at the TNA headlines).

    now i know most of you are day-traders - I am not. I shorted TNA in very large size at $85 back in February 2011 and covered on average at $40 later in 2011 (i was not smart enough to cover at the bottom)......i only short as a hedge as 1% to 2% negative carry every month more than pays for my hedge.

    this go around I am partially (only partially as I am still bullish longer-term) hedged around $78

    the other thing that concerns me greatly is the RSI of 66 at the recent peak for TNA, down from 80's and 91 on December 8, 2012 back when TNA was at much lower levels.....typically a more serious RSI-fade down into the 60's as TNA strongly peaks in price is not a great harbinger of things to other words, both the outflows and the weak RSI-fade as TNA peaked tells me that smart money was selling (early) as the patsies were buying

    while I know most of you only day trade tiny amounts of money over and over again, and that is why you are "buying the dip" in here, I would be interested in getting any thoughts as to any bullish signs that this was a quicky sell-off and it is statistics show otherwise.....they reflect a potential multi-week/month selloff that may be far worse than the called for 5% correction......i have absolutely no percentage in talking my position as I am net long the market......if I was net short, you would not be hearing from me as I believe it to be bad karma to needlessly jaw about my positions.

    thanks in advance for any constructive commentary

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    • the fact that no one has responded to my post with any intelligent commentary speaks volumes about the (lack of) quality of analysis done by folks posting here....all anyone is interested in is responding to hyperbole and conjecture.....thanks for telling me all I need to know about paying attention to anything any of you are writing!!

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