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BluePhoenix Solutions Ltd. Message Board

  • dtechman dtechman Jan 31, 2008 10:47 AM Flag

    What am I missing?

    Why are we down so much on a good report and what I thought was a good conference call? Companies estimates are for over $1 in earnings this year. In a normal market, this should be a $25 stock.

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    • Reading the charts is not mumbo jumbo. It's really the only thing we know about the supply and demand of the stock.

      Often TA can foretell movement in a stock, because professionals trade in bigger lots, and they have access to more information than we do.

      Charts are also important because professionals use them to time their buys and sells. If a good stock touches its 50 day average, it tends to get buyers. Likewise, if it crashes through its 50 day or 200 average on high volume, it tends to get shorts. There are thousands of institutions with sophisticated computer programs that make buy/sell decisions based on technicals.

      You can like a company's fundamentals but ultimately it is supply and demand that dictates the stock price. The trend rarely changes overnight. When a stock gets whacked on earnings, it may get a short-term bounce from being oversold, but typically the downward pressure continues. Look what happened to AAPL for example.

      So, we may get a little bounce here, but then there is a strong likelihood of hitting resistance. Nobody knows where the bottom will be. It could easily be 25% lower or more if the bear market resumes.

      If you like the company, put the stock on your watch list and wait it out. It's far safer to buy after the stock has formed a base, even if you miss a few points off the true bottom. If you ride a stock down, while your money is tied up waiting to gain 50% to recoup your 25% loss, it could have been growing in other stocks that are stronger performers.

    • All this mumbo jumbo reading the chart is funny.BPHX got slam ,but it will bounce back tomorrow.This is an buying op for those can hold longer than 1 day.They will earn $1+ this year = $20 -$ 25 by dec.IMO

    • more like boring earnings. Analyze all you want, but the bottom line is if you beat the number by only 1 cent per share and you don't guide significantly higher, this equals getting slammed. Same thing will happen to SNCR next week unless they blow the number away and guide higher.

      All that moving average junk and charts and analysis is a bunch of poop. Its all about blowing the number away and guiding higher!

      All that said if BPHX goes lower in the next couple of days, its a buy on a 6 month to a year time frame.

    • Sadly I would say our bearish friend here is correct. For longer-term holders, the valuation is pretty cheap. But that doesn't mean it can't get cheaper in the days or weeks ahead.

      Why? Fundamentally, the market does not like it when a company decides to play games with reporting. Granted, there are very good reasons why it should report non-GAAP until the subsidiary is sold off, but to say they won't present GAAP at all confuses analysts and thus is a net negative. Over time, this will be forgotten in favor of the valuation, the fact they have paid down all of their debt, and their increasing earnings and strong backlog. But confusion is bad for a stock price, period.

      Technically, it's now a disaster. If you fall down and break your leg do you jump up and walk on it right away? The stock closed below its November low, and thus has pretty much broken its recent chart pattern. Volume was ghastly, and it failed its early day attempt to close the gap. This suggets there is a supply of shares waiting to depress the stock around those levels, as momentum buyers now become momentum sellers.

      Bear markets tend to last 6-9 months, however, not forever (the last bear market notwithstanding, which was an anomaly), and this should bottom soon, given the valuation. Although this price is extremely tempting, it never hurts to wait and watch before you leap.

      Best of luck-
      KK

      It

    • I'm a buyer here.

    • Today on heavy volume BPHX found support bouncing off it's 50 day moving average. If your a long term investor todays action is rather meaningless and helps to solidify the base formed last fall when the stock moved above $10 per share on the breakout of the $7-8 range.

      • 1 Reply to threadogie
      • Sorry but your TA is way off.

        BPHX 50 day average is now 17. It's 200 day is about 14.60. It did find support at the 200 day.

        A base is a constructive pattern that occurs after an uptrend where support for a stock is built. Today the stock has broken its base on tremendous volume. There is no support now going back to the fall breakout. Time will tell if 14 is new support.

        I believe the bear market will resume and BPHX will be ripe for shorting. It should fall at least to 13, and maybe 11, before the next bull market kicks in.

    • I believe this extremely heavy volume will be capitulation on the downside and we move up slow and steady throughout the year.

      • 1 Reply to dtechman
      • You forget we're in a bear market. Oh yeah, right, that only lasted three days.

        Complacency has set in to this market but stocks getting killed after reporting decent earnings is a reminder that things still suck.

        The other shoe will drop and the bear market will resume soon. I'll be looking to short BPHX if it rallies above 17. It will surely test its 200 day average at 14.50 once the bear wakes up.

    • My guess is there were many who planned to short the stock when the earnings came out since the earnings would include in the the $7million impairment charge to goodwill that were associated with sale of a losing operation/investment. "They" shorted and shorting begats shorting. Otherwise the prospects seem bright for continuing success. I bought some more part-way down but not THAT far down.

    • The bottom line

 
BPHX
3.59-0.06(-1.64%)Sep 12 2:32 PMEDT

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