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Myriad Genetics Inc. Message Board

  • shaxmatist shaxmatist Mar 29, 2005 2:53 PM Flag

    So silent...

    Whats up? Nothing to talk about? :o)

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    • <<Aren't you way low here? Last earnings CC, profits from PM were generating above $1M/month, so isn't it more likely profits are $15M or so?

      I think PM biz grew at 79% rate last period- don't expect that but isn't 30%+ growth rate realistic?>>

      Yes, we could see 30% growth if they market the product well. Now they'll start to sell it on the internet, so anybody can get a kit without going to a doctor, this should boost sales further.

      Long term, I am not sure. How many genetic tests will a person use to find if she is prone to breast cancer? Once in a lifetime. There is no repeat business. So while the product is new, the sales will be growing quickly, but eventually the market will saturate.

      If it wasnt for the drug pipeline, I probably wouldnt invest in MYGN's PM business. But Flurizan and 6827 are worth betting on.

    • PedroRojo:

      <<I think you're a major pessimist. I've always felt that 6827 and 2130 are very promising drugs. I honestly hope Fluristan doesn't flop but if it does we could see $20 and much more in one day if either of the aforementioned delivers on even 1/10th of their potential. >>

      Both 2130 and especially 6827 are very promising. 6827 seems to induce cancer cell death in very low concentrations, for a wide variety of cancers and easily penetrates the brain blood barrier too. The major test will be seeing what kind of collateral damage to healthy cells such a powerful drug will do.

      Pessimistic, me? :o) Nah, I am just hoping the shorts will drag it down some more so I can buy cheap shares before the Fzn results are out.

    • <<29-Mar-05 07:45 ET In Play Myriad Genetics' Flurizan results should have large impact on stock -- CSFB (MYGN) 20.41 : CSFB says MYGN's Flurizan mild-moderate Alzheimer's disease clinical Phase 2 study (expected mid-May) is properly designed and has been well executed, but is statistically underpowered for a "true" Phase 3 study. Firm would be surprised if the primary endpoint were to be met. However, if met, stock upside could reach $38-40, $13-$17 if missed but positive efficacy trends exist. However, if missed and no clear efficacy trends exist, stock could settle in at $10-13. >>

      So whats the outrage all about? He didnt say anything special:

      - by "underpowered" he means not enough people are enrolled in the trial to judge if the drug works. Fair enough. Thats why Phase 3 trial enrolment is underway and is expected to collect 1000 people which will be statistically very significant.

      - $10/sh if it's a complete flop? Easily.

      - $17/sh if it doesnt beat the existing treatment but some improvement is shown? Sounds reasonable.

      - $40/sh if the results are really good? Will be higher in the long run, but dont expect it to shoot straight to 200. It takes time to gain momentum.

    • >> profits from the PM business are about 10 million a year<<

      Aren't you way low here? Last earnings CC, profits from PM were generating above $1M/month, so isn't it more likely profits are $15M or so?

      I think PM biz grew at 79% rate last period- don't expect that but isn't 30%+ growth rate realistic?

      cheers

      ps. I'm guessing PM biz is worth $300M easy- add in cash at $4/share you have $14 before you even look at the pipeline or anything else

      Note- Ted Tenthoff at Piper claims that flubie alone is worth $20 and the other 3 compounds in clinicals are worth $10. $44 in this market isn't going to happen w/out stellar news events, but certainly $33 target doesn't seem out of line by any stretch.

    • . I've always felt that 6827 and 2130 are very promising drugs. I honestly hope Fluristan doesn't flop but if it does we could see $20 and much more in one day if either of the aforementioned delivers on even 1/10th of their potential.>>

      I agree but IF the dog hadn't stopped to take a crap, he would have caught the rabbit. <G>

    • Shax,
      I think you're a major pessimist. I've always felt that 6827 and 2130 are very promising drugs. I honestly hope Fluristan doesn't flop but if it does we could see $20 and much more in one day if either of the aforementioned delivers on even 1/10th of their potential.

    • <<Somebody help me understand how this stock could possibly be worth less than $13 even if Fluristan didn't exist?>>

      Well, if we take a Ben Graham approach to valuing stocks, a company's worth is assets minus liabilities plus a multiple of its yearly earnings of 10 to 15.

      Myriad's shareholder equity is 173 million. If we subtract research costs, profits from the PM business are about 10 million a year. So that gives us a present value of 173+10*15 = $323 million ($10.5/sh). How much the drugs in the pipe are worth? Who knows, could be anywhere from 10 billion to zero.

      The company will survive if Flurizan flops, but we will not see $20 for many years if that happens.

    • because with the small amount of shares outstanding they can manipulate a stock like this. Stock is in a downtrend, everyone is waiting on results of phase 2 and then he comes along and poo poo's the entire test. I'm sure they were short big as csfb.
      Here's the post.

      Quick Search Results for Myriad Genetics (MYGN)

      Future Events Search again: 6 months 1 year 2 years
      Date Page Event
      03-May-05 Earnings Next earnings release: May 3 before market, unconfirmed. Reuters Research estimate: -0.33


      Results for In Play; 2 year


      Date Archive Article
      29-Mar-05 07:45 ET In Play Myriad Genetics' Flurizan results should have large impact on stock -- CSFB (MYGN) 20.41 : CSFB says MYGN's Flurizan mild-moderate Alzheimer's disease clinical Phase 2 study (expected mid-May) is properly designed and has been well executed, but is statistically underpowered for a "true" Phase 3 study. Firm would be surprised if the primary endpoint were to be met. However, if met, stock upside could reach $38-40, $13-$17 if missed but positive efficacy trends exist. However, if missed and no clear efficacy trends exist, stock could settle in at $10-13.

    • The analyst is either trying to miss targets by a wide margin and with intent, or he (I assume that no female could be quite so stupid) is mentally disabled.>>

      What about the analyst at Piper Jaffray? Is he also mentally disabled? What about First Albany? Silence of the lambs? Technically, there is no reason to jump on this stock. Chart is terrible. No sense throwing good money after bad.

    • Pardon me while I stifle a yawn.
      You're expecting $100? Hope you're under 12 years of age, because it might take 50 years for that to happen. By the same token, your expectations for VPHM were similarly somewhat delusional.
      Z

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