ACOR, AMAG, ALXN, BMRN, CADX, CEPH, CBST, DNDN, HGSI, JAZZ, ONXX, UTHR theflyonthewall.com: Big Pharma may gulp down a fistful of drug producers, Barrons.com reports
The big companies are willing to pay up for their smaller brethren because they can use their own sales forces to sell the drugs and slash marketing and overhead at the target company. Barron’s identified 13 promising specialty-drug companies—nearly all of which have at least one product already approved by the Food and Drug Administration—that could prove enticing to the majors. The 13 each have a stock-market value below $10B, making them digestible for buyers. The list includes Acorda (ACOR), AMAG Pharma (AMAG), Alexion Pharma (ALXN), BioMarin (BMRN), Cadence (CADX), Cephalon (CEPH), Cubist (CBST), Dendreon (DNDN), Human Genome (HGSI), Jazz Pharma (JAZZ), Onyx (ONXX), United Therapeutics (UTHR) and Salix Pharma (LXP).
The logic of "gobbling up" & "intergrating into e pre-existing salesforce" sounds like a familiar theme put forth here. Someone will acquire MYGN & and integrate their myriad of tests into an already entrenched sales force. Oncolygy/obgyn salesforce simply has an add-on product to mkt into their channells. An international conglomerate could gain trans european penetrtation over night! Mygn getting acquired is a "when" not an "if"
That "when" is probably beyond anyone's investment horizon. The problem is that Myriad sells tests that look like tests, needs a research operation that looks like a feisty drug developer, and is building a sales force that looks like old-line big pharma. It just isn't a good fit for anyone, all three pieces are important to the value proposition, and none of the "looks likes" is exact enough to be easily replaced by the parallel operation of an existing player.
Let some of the newer tests grow into their paws and the company might make a reasonable division for one of the behemoths. But until then, they aren't digestible.
Another yawner as far as I'm concerned. In line on EPS, Slight beat on revs. Guidance for 2011 same as last quarter. Still great margins. Continuous cash cow, but that's it. Growth still limited. All these great new products coming up, but nothing new added to the bottom line, the only place it matters. Continuing 8%-10% growth. Let's just be one of those old stodgy stalwarts and just institute a 50% dividend payout. Will they ever have a big beat and raise guidance?? Even if you put a 20 multiple (very generous for a company growing revs at 8%) on 2012 estimates, what your price target?? $23.20?? Isn't that just about where we are now?? Not much price appreciation from here unless they start growing revs. Just give me my dividend.
I like dividends BUT. We're seeing slow adoption of the newer tests. In the end, Prezeon and Colaris ought to be as big as BRACAnalysis. Obvious answer is that these tests need to be pushed. One way or another that generally costs, so I'm not about to hurry the company to pay a div.
I regarded the success of the latest DTC campaign as a big positive.
What was great about it (Conference Call)? The results met analyst expectations, but not all that good considering the tax provision. Still holding, but I'm thinking tomorrow will not be a good day for the share price. Hope I'm wrong.
Beautiful Commentary by Peter!
Pending Penetration in Europe and Germany.
Also working on making norm and guideline for screening pancreatic cancer, colon cancer, lung cancer and Malignany Melanoma.
Planning on making BRCA analysis available for screening people who can respond to chemo meaning more indications.