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Cirrus Logic Inc. Message Board

  • tavisman01 tavisman01 Nov 2, 2012 6:49 PM Flag

    Next fiscal years estimates are too low!

    I am not sure when those will start get upgraded for Apple but when they do for Crus...

    Currently they are modeling 3.78 which is about a 15 percent increase. Crus has grown at such a low rate in YEARS.

    Lets assume that we wont raise EPS by 300 percent again... Lets go with a more conservative 30 percent.

    This years estimate is 3.28 (to low) with a 30 percent bump we get to 4.26.

    4.26 x20pe = 85
    4.26 x30pe = 127

    We grew at 300 percent EPS this year... I am modeling 30 percent next year. this stock is horribly horribly cheap.

    Concentrate on the data ignore the noise.

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    • prefer to ignore them though.

      even if true the projection is meaningless as the company doesn't hold its fate in its own hand anymore. Cirrus is just riding Apple's coattail now.

      Will the IPhone 5 be an continuing hit ? Very likely, so CRUS might reach your projection...

      Will CRUS be in the next generation Apple products ? Who knows at this point...

      And if they make it into the next gen products how much additional pressure will be put on the gross margin ?

      And will the next gen products even bigger hits than its predecessors to allow Cirrus growing revenues and eps despite lower margins? Nobody knows but this is becoming more and more unlikely as Android already has 75% market share in most regions of the world except for the US.

      So there are many ways Cirrus might lose the game. And no chance to win on its own. So I don't know why investors want to own a stock carrying so much future risk and offering this little rewards.

      The easy money on this one has been made already but for know skepticism is here to stay for some time going forward.

      Bottom line:

      This is an ultra-high risk stock due to the Apple relationship which brought the company back in the game a few years ago but at some time in the future this move will fire back at the Cirrus.

      Investors obviously are thinking this time will come rather sooner than later now.

    • you looking at things all wrong. the same funds who hold apple hold crus/swks. when they selling apple they selling those two stocks as well.

      just look at charts. no bottom yet and nothing new to come out to propel them higher.

      crus $25, swks $18, apple $550-500

      that is what i see coming.

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