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Cirrus Logic Inc. Message Board

  • mk54321 mk54321 May 2, 2013 6:49 AM Flag

    This Incredibly Cheap Stock Might Rise Above the Clouds--CRUS

    By Harsh Chauhan - May 1, 2013

    Harsh is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
    It seems like the Street has a penchant for punishing Cirrus Logic . The stock was punished heavily in mid-April after the company released preliminary results, dropping to the tune of around 17% in a single day. The preliminary results revealed that Cirrus would be missing estimates and its gross margins would take a hit. The shares crashed heavily, and rightly so, at that time.

    Double trouble

    However, when Cirrus actually reported results last week its shares crashed once again, this time around 9%, even though it had indicated beforehand that its quarterly report would be ugly. The outlook for the ongoing quarter wasn’t great either, as Cirrus said that it expects revenue of $150 million to $170 million, marginally ahead of the $159 million consensus estimate.

    But then, it won’t be exactly right to compare the revenue estimate for the ongoing quarter to Street estimates, as it has fallen rapidly to adjust in-line with Cirrus’ own expectations. For instance, as the Associated Press pointed out , the estimate was around $191 million in mid-April, but is well below that number now.

    Incredibly cheap

    Cirrus is quite adept at sharing the pain of its largest customer, Apple , from whom it derived 85% of total revenue in the previous quarter. It is this customer concentration that has weighed heavily on Cirrus. In Apple’s halcyon days, Cirrus rode its client’s coattails to great effect and was trading in the mid-$40 range. Cut to the present, and the stock is trading within 10% of its 52-week low. But this is where it gets real interesting.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • mk so who is the tier one customer?? or was that a myth!!!??

    • And the analysis is so positive even without accounting for the burgeoning LED market that CRUS is building... so additional kicker there as well

      thanks mk!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Cirrus trades at a P/E of just 9.35, its PEG ratio is just 0.39, and its EV/EBITDA multiple is only 4.46. All these metrics point toward one thing -- the company is undervalued at its current price, especially considering the high growth it has seen over the past year or so. The only sticking point is its high dependence on Apple, which has led it to its current misfortunes. However, there seems to be a strong belief among investors that the company has finally bottomed out, as it’s trading up around 8% as of this writing.

      Sensing an opportunity

      While Apple’s transition to its new product lineup was the reason behind Cirrus’ pain in the previous quarter, the soft outlook for the ongoing one isn’t much surprising, considering that the June quarter has always been a slow one for the supply chain. The company had to record an inventory reserve of $20.7 million, which took down its gross margin to 40.4%, down around 10% from last year.

      But from here, things should get better. While the erstwhile revenue estimate of $191 million would’ve made sense if Apple had pushed out its products in June, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Analysts expect that Apple would refresh its product line up in September, like it did last year, and that’s the quarter when Cirrus should see better revenue.

      A greater market to help Cirrus

      Moreover, there’s another factor that could work in Cirrus’ favor -- a low cost iPhone. As analysts at Citigroup Global Securities pointed out, Apple might release the low-cost version of the device in early September, along with the rumored iPhone 5S. Also, if the research firm’s claim that Apple would launch a TD-SCDMA version of the iPhone for the Chinese market comes true, then both Cirrus and Apple can expect to finally benefit immensely from the smartphone boom in the Middle Kingdom.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to mk54321
      • While the smaller iPad might be cannibalizing its elder sibling, one thing is very much clear -- it’s a hugely successful product and is enabling Apple to cover a wider market. If Apple launches a retina iPad mini later this year, it would address the only gripe that users had -- lack of a retina display -- and propel Apple’s iPad sales higher.
        However, investors need to be alert with regards to a retina iPad mini, as the latest rumors suggest that the tablet might not see the light of the day this year. But Apple’s increased attention to China and a low-cost device for the emerging markets should do enough to push up Cirrus’ sales till that happens.
        Cirrus’ management is confident that the company is well-positioned to grow revenue and profit in the coming years. It’s looking forward to supplying more content to its end-markets and ramping up its new custom products. The company is still growing, and it’s growing fast.
        Cirrus’ management is confident that the company is well-positioned to grow revenue and profit in the coming years. It’s looking forward to supplying more content to its end-markets and ramping up its new custom products. The company is still growing, and it’s growing fast.
        Still going strong
        Despite all the negatives around it, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Cirrus grew its revenue 90% in fiscal 2013 while non-GAAP earnings jumped 138%. In light of such numbers, the stock is trading at very cheap levels. The analyst estimate for revenue for the current fiscal, which is a tad lower than actual revenue in the previous one, might be pushed up significantly going forward as the next Apple refresh cycle comes and new devices are introduced.Keeping these points in mind, it would make sense to initiate a position in Cirrus. It’s massively beaten down, but it’s not out. And before the Apple trolls come out and comment that Apple is going down, I would like to say that Apple’s products are still selling in the millions,

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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