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  • dejpuj8 dejpuj8 Jul 14, 2012 12:04 PM Flag

    Any one else notice this?

    Didn't mean to go over your head. In a nutshell, I have a feeling the government contract will be won and will be bigger than expected. Neighbors usually know a little more than others.

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    • Is this large position in ATK "recently" acquired by Eagle Funds or have they had this position longer than the contract was put out for bid ? Please verify or provide a link that backs up your "hunch".

      • 1 Reply to budicecream
      • In all fairness I do have to call it a hunch. This stock will not move until October. Last year everyone thought that they would win the Redford bid worth $895 million. They lost it to BAE. I hate the fact that a military facility paid for by the US taxpayers paid a British company to come into the US and run it, but I guess they can do that. HOWEVER, this puts into question the Lake CIty bid in October. That government contract is 15% of their revenues. If they lose that, it will be a major blow. That's why the buying has stalled and the open interest in November calls are way up. As we know, if the contract is locked in, we will shoot up pretty fast. However, if we do not get that contract, we will fall just as fast. Eagle has had a strong position through the appeal ATK went through last year to try to get that Redford contract back. I am hoping that the move to VA is helping them politically. However, being that Eagle are neighbors to the plant in Lake City, I hope they have some insight as the probability of that contract. It's really hard to believe they would not lighten their position with such a strong factor just a month or so away.

        I am afraid the $200 million share buy back is not a defensive move in case they do lose that bid and the price plummets.

        Google "BAE wins Redford Bid" and also "BAE Lake City". If you weren't following those bids, you really want to read the story on both of them. For now, I am sticking to calls. I can at least limit my downside without missing an opportunity on the upside. I am just sad they waited so long to diversify. They have really proven how much talent they really have.