If we get the freight liner contract we will certainly see 1.50 or higher not long after the announcement. If we don't get the contract, we may start to fall back in price and may not see over 1.10 in 2012. If the economy continues to improve and EVI and VIA give us some new large orders, we could slowly move towards 1.50 by years end.
Oh well, going back to the original thread, no worries for me in any case. There is almost no scenario that I see where I do not profit here. If it declines into .88 to .90 range I will either sell for a small gain, or buy more. All depends on the circumstances and the technicals.
<<as far as smith, the original 70M agreement had nothing to do with smith usa, it was smith eu, and they still provided for them, even though its going to be a while before they get to 70M>>
And given that Valence has sold $0.00 of batteries to Smith EV (US or Europe) in the 3 quarters since Smith signed their supply agreement with A123, either Kanode is lying when he says Valence remains the supplier to Smith Europe, or Smith Europe isn't selling any trucks. Which, of course, makes you wonder about the value proposition of electric delivery trucks without massive government subsidies given that: (1) there are government subsidies in Europe, just not as high as Obama's, and (2) the cost of fuel is twice as high in Europe as it is here.
<<the agreement was snubbed by the recession, not noways guess work.>>
It didn't take "guess work" to realize that Kanode's tout was hot air given that it would have taken thousands of trucks to generate "$70 million in the first year" at a time when Smith's regulatory filings indicated they were selling dozens. It was obvious to anybody with a brain larger than a pea. The fact that it wasn't obvious to you then, and that you still haven't figured it out now, simply demonstrates that your brain is much smaller than a pea.
Actually, I would say that over $1.50 is possible, but only with some new business that is not currently known to the market.
Not sure what you mean by "neutral" if you mean that things remain the same, I would say $1.00 to $1.05, since I continue to believe that Berg has a plan to try and avoid delisting. If it hits $1.15, how is that neutral, that would actually be a good return.
If for whatever reason, the next quarters' revenues are less than 11 million, and we lose another 2 to 3 million it could go to 70 cents.
Thanks for bringing that up, I know that some folks are calling for 2 bucks or higher soon, hopefully they are correct.