Actually dond_ I also predicted bankruptcy for VLNC several times over the years, and believe me, they had one foot inside the door on several ocasions. One thing about noway is, agree with him or not, you cannot dispute what he said. Indeed, if not for Mr. Berg pumping money into the company, VLNC would have ceased to exist some time ago.
In my opinion, this is what has changed. The company has now shown some ability to compete in the commercial vehicle market for Electric vehicles, and seem to have some visibility in the marketplace. It is still a very risky play due to the balance sheet. But I really do not see bankruptcy in the cards, although I believe that sometime in the next 12-15 months they need to start showing some revenue growth and improved margins.
I think that the financial condition of the company puts a cap on the best case price in 2012 of right around what you say, $1.75 to 2 dollars at the most.
Thousands of Bagholders over the years have lost millions of dollars on this stock thinking they were safe because an insider was buying.
1. The insider in question was a co-founder of the company, owns half the shares and virtually all of the debt:
2. Without the insider in question providing some of the cash to feed the 23 straight years of losses and negative cash flow, the company would soon go bankrupt because they have no credibility to raise money on the capital markets with the exception of toxic financing.
3. The insider in question would lose all of his investment if the company went bankrupt.
4. A couple of million here and there is chump change to the insider anyway.
5. The insider has been feeding the cash-eating machine for decades without any results...
I wouldn't place much stock in Uncle Carl buying shares. For all we know, he is also an investor in the hedge funds with big short positions.