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First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. Message Board

  • rylee_kevin rylee_kevin Mar 3, 2011 2:27 PM Flag

    Interesting Day

    Still a lot of shorts out there. Good buying so far today. I hope something that will pop us another 10%. Love to see the $12.80 number this month. Looks like a buy. S&P up the price to $12 per share from a $11 in one report I saw. Anyone see anything different?

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    • I read it the same way.

      I think management was very smart to issue the shares at $11.40. I think thats a massive price to pay for a REIT that doesn't have a dividend in the near future. But like my grandfather would tell me "a fool and his money".

    • agreed the leases are shorter term. This works well for both tenants and landlords. Both have to take the good and the bad in the future markets.

      This would account for all the reits. They all have a basket of low lease prices and over market lease prices.

      Each building and market is different. FR will probably give them shorter leases or just take the hit on the lease rate.

      Either way I do not see this as a womping number to the bottom line.

      Also the retention does not necessarly mean they could not keep the tenants. In many cases the buildings are just to big and the tenant needs to move out. Again this should be more common today with all the reits.

      As your interest rates go up so does the cost to repoduce these buildings.

      These are still class A assets and I can assure inventory is drying up much quicker than anyone on this board realizes.

    • Surprised me too, and as I stated I could easily be wrong to have sold.

      The market seems to be strong for beaten down CR right now, but that report was not good. But hey, it made it past $10 strongly so may have institutional report. Still, I think next Q may be dissapointing, if nothing else the dilution will set in. At any rate, my basis was low so I took my profits, and still have a smaller holding I am wondering whether to sell.

      If it retraces to the high $7s I will rebuild my position in it. Shorting I would not do however.

    • I may be wrong but as I read it the ATM stock offering is separate and still active (note number of investment firms involved). The UBS deal is in addition to the ATM.

      Am I wrong? I agree earnings report not inspiring but sale of offering at 11.40 was stunning to me

    • That's fine. But that's not NAV. NAV will be flat, or down slightly.

    • Schwab posted S&P 2/28 report at 12 target. Sam Zell believes the market will continue to strengthen. Rental rates are lower than 2 years ago but occupancy will increase from here and no new commercial property is being built.

      • 2 Replies to rollnon
      • But he also said he wasn't buying, and, apparently, he missed the bottom on the CR stocks.

        Bottom line is they are diluting here, perhaps the right move, but they have been doing it all along. Granted, they will have a better balance sheet and reduce overleveraging, but my estimate is they will have gone from something like 43M or 49M shares to something like 72M or so for now I myself am clipping off the upside on the chart.

        FWIW, I am selling my larger position here and may rebuy at $9. If it holds at $10 or so or these levels I will simply say I was wrong, and I could easily see this one doing that.

        But they cannot keep diluting and expect this thing to rise for it, and, while their occupancy was up, that was still not that great and it comes at a cost to pricing, pressure which may continue.

        CR never spiked like residential during this last cycle, but they still overbuilt big time, and it went down about 40%, but there is still a s load of empty space to fill, from strip malls in Florida to office space across the country. Inflation is the ugly monster here, and GB the second hyperinflated both housing and food costs, gas prices will continue to hurt, and Obama has proven the Democrats to be even bigger deficit spenders fueling it more. It's at 15% or more right now, taking out crap like TVs, which are a small part of it all, despite how politicians crap the stats to look good.

        Long slow recovery, IMHO, and 8.9M more shares more may be what stalls this one's, though I could be wrong. JMHO.

      • I have landlords holding tough. Telling me others are looking the space. I am seeing the same things on my listings. Activity is picking up. With no contruction existing RE will get filled first. See you at the top!!!

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