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Dex Media, Inc. Message Board

  • lawshark93999 lawshark93999 Jan 28, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    So much for Kyle Bass's predictions

    Everyone knows he predicted that DXM would be worth 5 times as much in 3 years (deadline for that one is May 2016) Not too well known is his prediction regards to the DXM bonds, in which he predicted last May that said bonds would be trading at par, after the merger of dexone and supermedia. LMAO..Not only are they trading far under par, but Moodys and some other credit agencies rate them as Caa with a negative outlook...It is appearing more and more obvious that Mr Bass' subprime bets were absolutely complete luck.after all look at his DXM and his japanese yen trades ....they are under water..what about his gold trade..I beleve this is also under water

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    • Why do you verbally "beat up" on people who have the nerve to share their opinions with the world? Much of life is luck, more than we are willing to admit. That doesn't diminish the value of Mr. Bass's thoughtful analysis. Forget whether he made money on sub-prime or on the yen, which contrary to your protestations I believe he likely has, ask yourself whether his publically shared analysis make sense. As Buffett says, "I evaluate a man on the quality of his thinking not on the results."

      Kyle Bass appears to be a well grounded, thoughtful, investor who, on balance, has made money for his investors. Leave it at that. Will he be right on this one? Who knows? But let's wait until 2016 before we beat up on him, and even then, we should be grateful, right or wrong, for his presentations. As to the "bonds" you refer to. There are none. The debt is bank debt. While this is a minor detail, it does demonstrate that even you are prone to some mistakes. The bank debt may not be trading at par, but it has been one heck of an investment over the last several years. Whether it remains so is always an open question, but to date, the debt has worked well for recent holders.

      I apologize that my note has the tone of a preacher. I just don't understand why these message boards can't be more constructive. This is a great game we play. What good fun it is to buy and sell, win or lose, and to then share our thoughts with a community of investors, long or short. I would prefer to win but I don't resent that you might win at my expense. There are plenty more pitches coming to swing at.

      As always, good luck.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I was a holder of DEXO when Kyle bought it and SPMD. Pretty sure he bought DEXO for under a buck, so he is still in the black on DXM. He also sold a lot of shares at a huge profit last May, so all his remaining shares are most likely free now as well.

    • I was involved in dex way before Bass showed up! I'm holding a lottery ticket waiting for the drawing!!! May take years the way it looks

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The gold "trade" was not a trade at all. It was a wealth preservation move on a long term timeline. Short term market repression, and a nearly total disconnect between paper gold demand by which current prices are quoted on one hand and physical demand by which prices will be quoted in the not too distant future on the other hand, may lead some to believe that gold is actually worth $1250/oz or less.

      Another "trade" you may have missed was his suggestion for MGIC (MTG) in about 10/2012 when it was about $1.20. He suggested a 5 bagger+, and it got there and more by Jan 2013.

      Bass is imperfect, and may have made a bad call on DXM (which he cautioned was "fraught with risk"), but he is a pretty astute investor - far better than most.

 
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