I think it went up so much because it shouldn't have gone down to 36. Really its gone from $41 last earnings report to $45 this report. The way this mkt has been trading, it will hold up for 5-7 days and forge some higher highs, then it will fall from like 46.50 to 43 real fast for no good reason. I'm trying to figure out which one is the best to short. I don't think its RYL. I think maybe MTH at $50 or even PHM at $21 and KBH at $22.30. PHM has no land to bulld homes on right now. And KBH has a dumb balance sheet. It is hard to figure out which ones are out of line.
Why short em in the middle of a recovery? Trying to make a 1.00 or 2.00 on the swings? IMO better to be long for longterm than to try and time the swings. Been long KBH PHM and HOV since late 2011 and it has worked out beautifully. I believe this will continue for a few more years.