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Gold Resource Corp Message Board

  • engynear engynear Feb 1, 2012 9:48 PM Flag

    Monday's Earnings Warning

    Interesting Facts from Monday’s earnings warning:

    --8-K disclosure filing with the press release has a “Section 18” Disclaimer, basically protecting Mr. Reid for any possible errors in it.

    --from the release:
    <<The Company set its 2012 Outlook and continues to target an aggressive low-cost growth profile.>>
    The aggression actually caused growth in production in Q4 to DROP.

    --from the release:
    <<As part of its normal operating procedure, the Aguila mill was shut down during the last 10 days of 2011 and the first 5 days of 2012..>>
    Groundwork for the excuse to miss Q1 is already being laid.

    --from the release:
    <<The Aguila mill is back online and based on the Company’s prior and current performance, the Company is setting its 2012 Outlook at a production range of between 120,000 to 140,000 ounces AuEq.>>
    2012 has always been a fixed 140,000 ounces. Now you are being hedged downward to 120,000-140,000. Expect another drop in range throughout the year.

    --from the release:
    <<The Company is targeting a cash cost per ounce range of $50 to $150 per ounce AuEq in 2012>>
    Six weeks ago this cash cost number was ZERO. Two weeks ago they bumped it up to 0-$50. Now they are at $50-$150. Expect this to go higher throughout the year and actually throughout the quarter. Expect a huge cash cost disappointment in the Q4 2011 numbers.

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    • > production in Q4 to DROP

      Cannot be determined with present data.

      Let's take a "bad" 2012 of 120,000 oz at $200 cash cost and $1500 gold and no El Rey. That's $156 million in mine profit, $50 million in dividends and $50-75 million in net income. Good numbers with lots of upside.

    • As you know, an 'Earnings Warning' occurs when a Company advises the market that earnings will not meet analyst expectations or company guideance.

      Monday's announcement clearly doesn't meet that threshold, as 1) earnings were not mentioned, and 2) earnings guideance is not provided that I am aware of.

      This is the second time you've now falsely called the Company's announcement an 'Earnings Warning'. Are you purposely trying to mislead investors?

    • IPlayWithMyP,

      Just what have YOU contributed to this board?

      Gotta laugh!

    • That has been the Apple play-book for years. Set expectations low and then beat. The morons on CNBC then announce a billion times whether guidance was met or missed without any reference to a change in guidance.

      You may disagree with this approach but that is how the game is now played.

      • 1 Reply to duncandis0rderly
      • Duncan,

        The shorts/bashers here are WHINING non-stop about the change in guidance mid-year 2011. If the market really cared about the change in guidance back then, then the stock would have taken a bit hit (which it did not). The market only cares about whether they made their 2011 target (which they did).

        Hence, the stock is reflecting that now (3 out of 4 days are up days so far). But the WHINERS want us to believe otherwise.


    • Great...Ulf is on this board too. Go back to the private board where you provide NOTHING of value to the other members. I love reading your little wish lists or pity party cries about lack of funds. Your posts are a waste of bandwith/email space. You remind me of an autogragh seeker, just excited to be near some of those posters that actually know the mining industry.

    • Well put, Ulf. Even IPlayWithMyPDaily is back at 'em. You know they are getting desperate when they pull in the B and C teams.


    • Ulf,

      Similarly, I am expecting to see something in the range of 1.4m - 1.6m for the 43-101. My feeling is that it will be somewhere in the range of what management has estimated in-house for some time now.

      We shall all know soon enough. Meanwhile, sit back, relax, and collect your monthly dividend!


    • Excellent work. The Reid's will do and say anything to keep the stock price up. They are not miners, they are marketers. Funny how the bears are the only ones doing the homework while the bulls are pumping. Current stock price doesn't matter. I know exactly where this PIG is going. The only other time I have seen this type of hype in this sector was regarding BRE-X. LMAO!!!!!!!

      • 1 Reply to keepshorting
      • Good morning, Im sitting here enjoying breakfast looking at a detailed analysis report written in November 2011. It states they expect the company to produce 131,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2012. Right in between the numbers management estimates of 120,000 to 140,000 given out 3 days ago. Spin it any way you want. I'm good with management projections going forward. If the company hit the low end of estimates thats a 95% increase over 2011. 1f it hits the upper end thats !10% increase over 2012.

        For now Gold, Silver, and Copper are all trending higher. The companies production is also trending higher, along with the stock price. I'm comfortable with everything right now.

        If your looking for the first long that says the 4th Q earnings weren't great then there I said it. I also don't care because for the 30th time everyone knew about it 6 months ago. Old news. You can see that based on the market reaction. I'm more interested in what the company can do in 2012. Again I don't take advice from anyone on these message boards. I've even gotten into it with some longs on this board because while I'm optimistic in the companies prospects going forward I'm not as optimistic as others here. Lots of things can occur that can change that optimism, but 4th quarter numbers weren't one of them. Especially since I already knew it was going to happen.

        Again the big 3 for me going forward in 2012 is :
        1) the 43-101 report
        2) price of gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc
        3) can the company meet it's 2012 production numbers

    • And since the press release the stock price has went up $1. Whats your point?

      Man everyone seems to be working overtime tonight. Folks the market closed 7 hours ago, give it a break already. Tomorrow is another day.

      Good night

      • 2 Replies to fruitvale3067
      • <<And since the press release the stock price has went up $1. Whats your point?>>

        Hi Fruitvale. Entering a discussion of near term movement on stock price is not fruitful, (no pun intended) as far as I'm concerned. I've been around long enough to know what a fool's game that is.

        Fundamentals, financial strength, management credibility or the lack of all of those, in this case, are what I would rather discuss.

        Good investing to you.

      • And since the press release the stock price has went up $1. Whats your point?
        The rug is going to be pulled from underneath you. You are blinded by the fact that you see the stock going up. There is not one long that has said the earnings were bad. It is printed in black and white and they were HORRIBLE!!! These are the best slam dunk shorts. When the longs refuse to even acknowledge the obvious. LMAO!!!!!!!

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