I suspect this is part of the rationale for FBR's call. Expansion of the worldwide fleet is happening. The futures are predicting the BDI will be below 2,000 in 2010 due to the rise in available ships. No amount of scrapping is going to abate this trend.
While NM has built in EPS growth for next year they are the victim of being in a sector with zero to negative earnings growth and so will be priced accordingly. Meaning multiple compression or lack of expansion at the least.
The best hope for stock price appreciation remains with the SA spinoff and NNA.