I'm no genius, but if we are supposed to be coming out of a recession, how come Container ships are parked all over the owrld, dry bulk ships are too.
Interests rates will have to rise, unemployment is still rising (last weeks numbers were crap) and cash for clunkers will pop sales, but what will happen when those who buoght can't pay..
It is a lot easier to buy a car than a house, especailly when you get $4,500.00 for a P.O.S. trade in.
I'm just not seeing this economy picking up..
Tomorrow, JASO reports numbers before the bell. If they stink it up, Solars will take it up the you know what. Again.. So much for that boondoggle.
As I mentioned unemployment numbers were crap, how can you still lose over 200k jobs in a week and then report that unemployment went down.. You cannot. Not unless you are reporting as you want to report, in order for things to look better..
The economy is in terrible shape.
When shipping picks up for dry bulk and containers, let me know, until then, this is a load of crap...
Add Cap and trade and higher penalties due to not providing healthcare for workers and small business will get killed..
Here is a news idea, if your representatives, plans to vote for cap and trade and the current healthcare plan, and they voted for the stimulus plan, and the bloated budget, write them a letter and tell them they are part of the problem not part of the solution.
Cut taxes, eliminate the death tax, wipe out the capital gains tax for business, like china does. Have a payroll tax holiday.
Last but not least, throw any person in Washington out on their ass who votes for a single payer healthcare plan.
"One, I put the fair value of NM at $8-10 and NMM at $14-16 based on the charters they have."
But you don't set the price, the market does. Feeling the stock is worth more doesn't make you money.
"I think you should look more closely at the structure of the business because you've correctly looked at the marco shipping picture but failed to see how different NM is from the other bulk shippers."
I think you should consider that NM's distinctions don't really matter to the market. It may give NM a slight p/e premium compared to its peers but NM will not act independently from them. A fact that seems to be missed by almost everyone here.
Thank you for replying, One, I put the fair value of NM at $8-10 and NMM at $14-16 based on the charters they have. I think you should look more closely at the structure of the business because you've correctly looked at the marco shipping picture but failed to see how different NM is from the other bulk shippers.
Cramer can show you stocks worth taking a look at, but for me, his myopic time line and clown dance cancel out any usefulness of his words.
I use a variety of sources to get ideas on stocks. Cramer is one. I know it is trendy to bash him in some circles, but when you think about how many stocks he is called upon to pass judgement on you realize he will be wrong sometimes. That's where your own judgement and DD comes in. By and large I respect his opinion based on his track record.
My view takes into consideration how the entire group NM is in looks, not just NM. For the group, profits are predicted to be flat or down YOY, NM being the exception. I say bully for Navios, except that '09 profit is below '08's.
The outlook for shippers would be improving based on greater global economic activity were it not for the fact that the number of ships available to haul goods is growing. That will keep rates depressed.
I'm young enough to be a bit more aggressive than being happy with a 5% divi. Sure NM was a bargain @ $2. Just about every stock was a bargain when things were bottoming.
Back then I bought TNDM, FUQI (at $10.60 thanks to IBD), UYM, FAS, and BAC. I got stopped out of TNDM @ $32 and bought C based on a Cramer recommendation.
then lay out a case to support your proposition. I'm with trub, NM has added a lot of future cash flow and was a steal at $2. My average price is $2.16 and while I'm not as thrilled with putting more in at ~$5 but it's still attractive. The big question is whether I'm interested in share price appreciation (NM) or larger dividend payouts (NMM)
Other stocks I like NRF, HIMX, NMM, TRN
I don't have much cash at this time, I've been fully invested since around the time of the turn. I could tell you what I've bought but what good would that do since you'd have no reason to believe me. Lets just say NM does not impress me as much as it does trub.