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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • ardm2003 Jan 14, 2010 8:33 AM Flag


    We closed at $7.04 the same as EXM I believe for the first time. Supposedly NM is a better company but historically EXM has appreciated much more than NM. Several years ago EXM was pushing $89 while NM could not advance out of the teens. Which one at this price is better in the short term for appreciation. I know some are going to say "look at how much EXM has fallen" but I say look at how "HIGH" stock price went

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    • Navios is a better company. Excel has more upside and riskier.

    • EXM has negative earnings growth while NM has positive. In this environment, I am staying with quality rather than speculative. On an annual basis, we are looking at a combined market index annual return of 58% (DOW, S%P, NAZ). Do you think that is sustainable for 2010? I don't. So any thing that is not rock solid is in for more volatility than most investors are expecting. Stay with quality. JMHO

    • ardm2003 Jan 14, 2010 12:58 PM Flag

      About time! It is now trading higher than DRYS and EXM. Volume is much higher today

      • 1 Reply to ardm2003
      • Are you seriously asking this? How can you honestly be an investor in general and not know simple multiples valuation...

        Price: $7.10
        MC: $723mm
        FY1 EPS: $1.10
        FY PE: 6.5x

        Price: $7.10
        MC: $533mm
        FY1 EPS: $0.13
        FY P/E: 54x

        You dont look at companies based on their stock need to look at them based on their relative valuation with relevant metrics. With an industry avg P/E of ~8x, EXM is severely overpriced while NM is underpriced. Who care whats their stock chart looks like...and your "look at how much EXM has fallen" but I say look at how "HIGH" stock price went" should never be a consideration. Relative valuation is all that matters...

        And im not going to get into the market's assumption of growth baked into EXM's stock and their low % lockups potentially leading to outperforming EPS with an expanding BDI...not relevant for this discussion...

    • EXM is projected to earn 13 cents next year,
      why would anyone want to own that over NM?

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