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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • trubulator12345 trubulator12345 Dec 22, 2011 1:20 PM Flag

    Best ideas?

    Anyone care to offer their best investment ideas outside of the shipping sector? I am happy to go first:

    - Autos: The average age of the US light vehicle is at or near a record and and used car values are at relatively high levels (see the Mannheim index). Consumer confidence is improving as have the the pace of unemployment filings. Not surprisingly, new vehicle sales have been trending up. At the same time, all the pain the industry has gone through has resulted in rock-bottom fixed costs and automakers and major parts suppliers have the ability to break even at very low sales levels. Despite all of this, the stocks get no respect from the market. My preferred picks are F and AXL. F is probably the less risky play, as the company has fixed its balance sheet and is one of the greatest success stories in modern manufacturing, given that they were down to hocking teh blue oval a few years ago. AXL is riskier given their more leverd balance sheet, but the company is a world class manufacturer of parts that simply must be made well and as they expand their sales base beyond GM they will grow sales like crazy even if US industry volumes stagnate.

    - US oil and gas (especially gas): Onshore producers who are weighted toward gas are out of favor. Nat gas prices are in the basement given the glut of shale gas. At $3 an MCF, gas is now low enough that produces generally do not make money on new production. Not surprisingly, gas rig counts have been falling, which augurs for a supply and price correction in the medium term. In the meantime, there are a ton of major gas users circling around the cheap gas in the US. No cheap resouce goes unused for long, and just in the methanol industry there has been a plant restarted that had been mothballed for years and other players are considering setting up plants in the US (such as industry leader Methanex). I think gas prices will eventually rebound and producers are switching to oil production in the meantime. I like CHK the best, but the whole industry is so cheap you could scoop up several names (DVN and UPL are attractive, IMO).

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    • Just added TPLM to my list of drillers which included KOG and WLL.
      There is nothing but higher oil prices in the future with Iran. Also oil production is dropping fast in Mexico and Venezuela, major US suppliers.

    • Buy C under $30, when and lf Europe finally stabalizes or if it implodes buy C at $18 or below.

      I have a GTC order @$18 in case Europe collapses

      • 2 Replies to wyoste
      • I just put a GTC order in for c at 18.01 --- not! couldnt pass up the joke. I really like HL before todays 10% gain. will be intersting to see what all the option activity meant after expiration (super unusually large number of Jan 6's. I also like the Microsoft (yep, hard to believe)-- their automotive division is going to rock for the next few years with blue tooth. I also would be a big buyer of BHP if it go back down a little more for me-- into all mined products and in a couple years will be a big potash producer-- another plus is that it is Australian. BTW folks--whats the best foreign stocks (want more non-dollar exposure)

      • yeah, buy the s-house banks...suckers needed.

        Banks are run by psychopathic criminals. All the ponzi schemers just want to return to business as usual--robbing you and your retirement. Sure Fraud St would love everyone to forget what's happened and just throw your money back to these freaks that produce nothing themselves and rely solely on your losses to pay for their lavish lifestyles. Yeah, they need your money all right.

        Well too bad the smart people aren't going to put ANY money in the ponzi markets. This leaves only the not-so-smart and poor...and they don't make good financial victims now do they?


        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/did-psychopaths-take-over-wall-street-asylum-commentary-by-william-cohan.html

    • I have been building a position with dal, smart ceo. He is carefully working to build cash flow, pay down debt. They hedge conservatively and come in better than the other airlines in that area.They have created great routes and partnerships in asia and south america, while recently expanding domestics from new york. They got rid of older planes and have reduced capacity. 2011 eps should come in at least 1.31 with analyst expectations for 2+ in 2012, closed fri at 8.10. It has been in the 7.5-8.75 range for awhile. jmho, gl!

    • BDCs are offering some great yields, but my two favorite are GAIN & TICC.

      I really like them because they have no debt - they just recycle capital once old loans are paid off which seems pretty darn smart to me. TICC has the better yield (9-11%) but pays quarterly. Don't own yet...

      GAIN is a little more risky because management runs a sister company GLAD, so may be some asset swapping between the two companies? Don't know.

      Some risk yes, but GAIN's fundamentals are sterling and they pay monthly. MONTHLY! Yielding between 6-8% a year. Own some.

      • 1 Reply to catnippss
      • I looked over AINV which is in the same sector (Providing loans to smaller firms who struggle to access the bond market)

        What I saw there was a NAV that was in constant freefall and dividends being paid out of that NAV, not earnings. They were takeing regular losses on the loans, but calling them one-time adjustments so as to still report a profit. Outsized dividends are used to dazzle the investor so that he doesn't look at the fundamentals too hard. You might want to take a second look.

    • dvn finds the nat gas and epd moves it with a 5% divy.

    • I have been heavily buying KOG and WLL on dips. I love that light Bakken crude. Oil is going over $100 and if Iran blows up we could see $150 oil. I think the Williston Basin oil play will be the big story of 2012.

    • I don't see anything fantastic but I lean towards OXY, MRO and TOO which I consider energy more than shipping. Gotta have GLNG, though.

    • PETEF.PK Primary Petroleum Corporation

    • I like the oiland gas play. I just got back into HFC at below book today.Look it over I think you'll like what you see.

    • Take a look at Baja Mining (BAJ.TO, there is a pink-sheet version BAJFF.pk in the US exchanges).

      Fully funded copper mining company, currently doing construction with mining-start to begin in Q1-Q2 2013. On budget and on-time so far during construction.

      You run the risk of delays, etc -- of course. But look into it, badly mispriced to cashflow they will produce in 2013+. One of my favorite positions =).

      -Fernando

      • 1 Reply to drexion2004
      • Favorite REIT: RSO

        RSO is a small cap commercial REIT that gets lumped into agency REITs for whatever reason and thus has the yield of one when it in fact is not an agency REIT. Has been paying a good dividend even through the massacre of 2008 and had/has a low amount of delinquent loans compared to peers. Runner up is NCT, I like the reward vs. risk.

        Favorite China play: CYD

        Another small cap and quite volatile. Had a brutal 2011 given the perceived slowdown within China. Develops/produces diesel engines for a variety of applications, from cars to buses to heavy machinery, even generators. There is a lot going on within CYD that is too much to write here. I'd advise going to the CYD board to learn more details for those interested. It pays a dividend but the amount is volatile. It paid a $0.50 general dividend in March of 2011 plus a special dividend of $1.00

        Favorite sin stock: PM

        Philip Morris has had a great 2011 and seems to be chugging along quite nicely. I like the % of revenue generated from outside the USA, which gives it a nice advantage IMO compared to Altria and others. Good dividend and not as much legal battles as Altria also.

        Favorite MLP: EVEP

        Good future for EVEP I think. Good current yield on stock and room for growth given the land it holds.

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