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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • foo_star foo_star Sep 21, 2013 11:02 AM Flag

    Owned fleet value 23.7 x 33 = 781

    Looking at the august ship values per platou and accounting for ship age of each owned NM vessel I get a fleet current market val (excluding charters) of 781m for the 33 owned vessels - includes the 2 panas just delivered and the other 2 fro that purchase due any day. NM core fleet only, (nothing for the LTC-ins or nav asia or nav europe or nsali or kleimar).
    those 4 panas avg age 7.75 avg val 18.92
    plus 1 handy age 2 val 21,
    plus 14 ultra avg 9.5 val 16.55,
    plus 4 more panas age 6.5 val 20.55,
    plus 10 capes age 3.3 val 37.1,
    total 781. as values may rise, fleet market value would follow. prices look right? q2 report said total "vessels, port terminal, and other fixed assets" were 1722m - but that's include all of what i excluded - eg NSALI ports and book value of owned NMM and NNA. Anyone believe they have a defensible model of total NM equity that's easier to digest than the raw NM data?

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    • It's pretty simple. "On a vessel-by-vessel basis, as of December 31, 2012, the carrying value of 28 of the Company’s vessels (including the carrying value of the time charter, if any, on the specified vessel) exceeds the estimated fair value of those same vessels (including the estimated fair value of the time charter, if any, on the specified vessel) by approximately $602.2 million in the aggregate (the unrealized loss). "

      nm stockholder's equity is $1.167 billion
      minus the $602 million they overpaid
      divided by 103 million shares
      equals $5.49
      the real book value of NM

      • 1 Reply to aarondtires
      • Thanks. Adjustments to that: 1) NMM is on the books at 120m less than market value, so add that. Little for NNA too. 2) Subtract the rather substancial intangibles of both goodwill (160m) and other than goodwill (201m), to get a better measure of true market NAV. That chops it way down. About 240m net. Near 2.30/shr. Down to near my rough $3 number. As an aside, the consolidated NM cash position includes a good bit of cash actually down within NSALI. Ah, those 6-Ks. I sold more today, now down to 1/3 of my recent max. Where else in shipping should one put cash, anyone see any true screaming deals still out there? I love NNA but have more than enough. TIA.

    • sorry, the 1722 in book wouldn't include the NMM and NNA, but plenty else.

      • 1 Reply to foo_star
      • I've just spent some hours poring over NM and NSALI SEC filings + presentation material + fleet data, and attempted to tally the hard, market-valued assets under NM's umbrella. I come up with just 1.95b. The associated debt is much easier to peg - it's 1.685b. With over 100m shares out that's $3/shr. So why is the book value of assets so much higher? 1) intangibles. I've discounted those to zero. 2) vessels purchased during the heyday are on book at purchase less straight line 25-yr depreciation, and market value is far less. I have included the NNA and NMM holding values and based the calc on the date of the last NM filing. I know that vessel values are rising, but pegged the valuation on the August numbers from Platou. I also know NM has additional moving parts. Nonetheless I've come to the conclusion that NM is overbought so I sold half my holdings today. The FFA's for Capes for Q4 are now sitting nicely at 32,500/day and panas at very nearly half that. Q1 tells a very different story - the big money says Capes will be only half this big surge over Q1, with similar declines for panas. There may well be continued buy momentum as the BDI headline numbers rise and spread and sink in but looking ahead I think this run has been great, time to pull back in a meaningful way. GL.

 
NM
4.06-0.010(-0.25%)Dec 24 2:48 PMEST

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