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VeriSign, Inc. Message Board

  • i_m_nbob i_m_nbob Aug 15, 2002 12:21 PM Flag

    Morningstar Report

    Multex released a 3-page Morningstar report on VRSN this morning that's likely to initiate another barrage of short selling. There is no sense in providing a link because you need to sign up for this free service.

    The only real positive in the report was a "B" grade for potential growth. They mention that VRSN should be done with amortization and expect the red numbers to finally go away. But they add that they expect margins to be hurt by less-profitable firms. They name Illuminet & H.O., specifically.

    The scariest comments were under "Financial Health". "C+" <<The balance sheet is getting worse; over the past 12 months, the cash balance fell more than 65% to $281 million as of the June quarter. Also, operating cash flow has declined significantly.>>

    In their summation titled, "VeriSign's uncertain future keeps us on the sidelines" they add; <<Assuming long-term sales growth of 15% and a jump in margins, the stock is worth about $10...if sales grow only 10% and margins remain flat--a scenario we view as more likely--the stock is worth only $5>>

    Personally, (and this is coming from a former Bull), I think in the short-term this equity does a torque spin. According to the research that I've done, VRSN is having an extremely difficult time integrating their over-priced acquisitions. They seemed to have bet the house on the belief that Web Addresses & Telephone Numbers will someday converge. If you have a long-term horizon (years), you MIGHT see this tree bear-fruit. I just don't have the patience.

    NBOB

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    • "I feel one day there will be rush for individual portals where you can get all your personal information."

      Yeah, I want all my personal information online so some deranged hacker can download it. I'll keep this stuff in a file folder thankyou very much.

    • Here's the original statement that started this discussion:

      >>Web addresses are going to explode one more time once the indivisual start acquiring their own web addresses like joejones.com or joejones.pr ( personal ) <<

      I said individuals wouldn't buy their own addresses in sufficient numbers to be an explosion of business. You piped in with "25 million people seem to disagree with you".

      In a normal conversation with a competent person, that should mean you think there are 25 million private individuals who have registered personal, not business, addresses. Your proof is that there are 30 million addresses so "I think it's safe to say that yes, the majority of them ARE your average person who wants a domain name for his/her private or business use"

      Since the point of the discussion is whether there is a second wave of registration business coming from individuals, not businesses, it's obvious you didn't get the point. You haven't proved anything about private individuals registering domain names, let alone 25 million of them (which is more than all the .com's in the world). What you think is "safe to assume" might be interesting to your mom and teachers but not to me. That's the equivocating I said you would have to fall back on.

      You're a blowhard and intellectually dishonest. Go directly to "ignore". Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

    • Whatever butt-munch. The fact is that MILLIONS of AVERAGE people (like you) register domains. Of that 30 million I think it's safe to say that yes, the majority of them ARE your average person who wants a domain name for his/her private or business use. The argument was why the average person would want a domain name, I provided the facts to back up my assertation. As far as mental powers go, you sir seem to be the one lacking in that capacity.

    • Your referenced url shows that there are about 22 million .com names registered and about 30 million total registrations. From that you conclude that twenty five million average people have registered domain names??

      If that's an example of your mental powers, you shouldn't call people names. You ain't no rocket scientist yourself.

      You're welcome. Maybe you should take your ball and go home now. I hear your mommy calling.

    • I agree with the earlier person 100 %. I have written this time and again. I am of the opinion that one day every indivisual ( except few millions in Africa and Asia )will have his/her own web site.

      Have you guys heard about Portals ? This is a big thing in corporate America and slowing gaining momentum in Europe. Today from Peregrine S/W to Oracle to SAP to PeopleSoft are jumping on this band wagon. Similarly I feel one day there will be rush for individual portals where you can get all your personal information. This can be viewed by your friends, relatives etc.. Even if you wish to leave message with some numbers people would be using their personal portals.

    • I disagree.

      People would want one the same reason why people want TVs, cellphones, stereos, computers, etc.

      The answer is "Because they want one - or will eventually want one because other people they know have one".

      You might as well put yourself back in 1975 ask "Why would the average person want a computer?"

      You're making the same arguement, just subsitute 'computer' for 'web address'.

      Does the average person want one right NOW? Probably not. But that will change. And there will always be some people who won't ever get one - just like there are some people who will never get a TV, but those people could end up being the minority in the long run.

      And it's not that expensive either- at least compared to what people spend on deluxe cable TV packages, or gasoline for their SUVs, or eating out at restaurants.

      But it doesn't matter to me if the majority of people don't want their own personal web sites with their own domain names. I'm betting that at least 5% of the world population will want their own web site with their own domain name.

      And let's say that half of those end up in .COM or .NET. Let's also make an excessively conservative assumption that the world's population will stay around 6 billion people. This means that means VRSN registry has the potential of having 150 million names under its belt over and above the domain names registered by businesses. Or in revenue terms, it's 900 million in sales (150 million X $6), of which about 750 million would be gross profit. This alone will add at least $1 in bottom line EPS over and above what is being earned right now (once you subtract marketing expenses, admin, etc).

      The question isn't if this will happen, but how quickly. I think a 2010 time frame is reasonable.

      And I haven't even factored in the effect this would have on the VRSN registar or the security-related business. Nor have I factored in a greater percentage of small businesses having web sites.

    • Sure, here you go shit for brains...

      http://www.domainstats.com/

      Have a nice day, thanks for playing.

    • You got any backup for your claim that twenty five million average people have paid for personal web addresses.

      Bet you equivocate your way out of this one. Get on your dancing shoes.

    • You friggin idiot, first of all VeriSign is NOT charged with anything, they are under "investigation", big difference, but it's just like a short to twist the words around to fit his needs. You also imply they are being investigated because they refuse to drop their prices! Hello McFly!

      Also, after these lowball companies collect thier $6.95 minus $6.00 for VeriSign registry fee, that leaves them with .95 cents or $4.00 per domain name with your $10 example. Just how long do you think these companies will be able to operate after their capital venture money runs out? For a measley $30 a YEAR I would much rather put my money into VeriSign.

      >>People are getting smart and are not paying high prices to VRSN for domain name. You can get a domain name for $6.95 from Godday.com . other hosting sites are offering it for around $10.00 . That is why VRSN is being charged with Deceptive Marketing<<

    • People are getting smart and are not paying high prices to VRSN for domain name. You can get a domain name for $6.95 from Godday.com . other hosting sites are offering it for around $10.00 . That is why VRSN is being charged with Deceptive Marketing

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