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Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. Message Board

  • nolevelplayingfield nolevelplayingfield Feb 28, 2011 9:29 AM Flag

    value of SFE

    Hello folks,

    Hello Gordon, Ira (thank you for keeping nixapple in check), Bill (up, up, up SFE?) , esbus (thank you for your thoughtful posts over time),
    I have been in and out of SFE over the last 14 years or so.
    SFE is my single largest holding now. Even though it has reached a high at $21.08, I personally do not feel, that it has reached its high yet. My expectation is that it will go up at least 50% more. I remember, early 2004 it traded in the mid 30s. Its cash position nor its stable of holdings then, were no where as strong as it is today. I wish I had kept records to be able to objectively compare its postion then and now. I have not. In being a holder of SFE, obviously I want the stock to do well, and would like to capitalize on its performance. I however am also concerned about being over optimistic. I might ramble along, so please bear with me. Gordon and father Frank used to do such a good job on the CLRT board.

    I am currently also a holder of ZLCS, and AIS (small caps), C, GE, BAC, etc.

    I have never known SFE to be in a stronger position than it is today since the time that I have been following it.

    1. It is very strong in its cash position. They just closed out nearly 78 mil of their 150 mil debenture. Still have a lot of cash floating around on their sale of CLRT and AVID .

    2. SFE has a strong stable of companies. I would not have guessed a year ago that Advanced Biohealing would be as strong as it is today. SFE’s life sciences partners are mostly doing well. Inspite of the fact that Tengion is struggling with their cash flow, my perspective is that they will be saved. At worst case, I expect that SFE will get their investment back. I have been trying to figure for myself as to what the partner companies are worth today through a valid objective guess, and for the life of me, I am afraid to guess. Peter Boni and his team could be more forth coming with their information of the revenue streams of these companies. I do understand that they may perceive it is not in the best interest of these companies to publish such information.

    3. Based on the revenue of $400 million of its companies, figuring a market value of between 1.5 to 2 times sales the value for SFE would be $600 million to $800 million. With a SFE float of just 20 million, the PPS should be much higher than it is now. Their revenue growth this past year has been nearly 50%!!

    4. If Portico were to go IPO, or were to put it self for sale, SFE would reap a nice profit. SFE still has some tax write off left. It had greater than 300 million TAX loss benefit on its books, before the sale of CLRT and AVID. So they can keep all the profit that they make without having to pay uncle SAM.

    It would be nice if some of you who follow SFE , were to post your thoughts on what you think a fair PPS for SFE would be.

    Thank you and best to you all.

    Ranjan

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SFE
20.10+0.01(+0.05%)Dec 26 4:01 PMEST

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