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Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. Message Board

  • apmarshall62 apmarshall62 Mar 3, 2011 6:48 PM Flag

    Earnings Call

    I just read the transcript through quickly and haven't updated my model or fully thought through the whole thing.

    A couple of observations:

    First, as expected there was no further information on ABH which is going to be the primary driver of the stock price. I think we will see a jump in the stock price when the IPO price is announced - even for a conservatively priced IPO.

    Second, while the transcript says something else, the press release said the Avid regulatory and revenue milestones for the additional $500m were "difficult". So, that doesn't sound like merely approval by the FDA.

    Third, SFE put another $9m into MediaMath and did so without any other partners. Previously, SFE had put in $6.7m for a 17% ownership stake. The $9m brought that up 6 points to 23%. That looks like the valuation of MediaMath has increased from $40m to $150m so, while that valuation was set by SFE, it does show that SFE's initial investment has already returned a $20m gain, or $1 per SFE share.

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    • I understand that valuing this company is very different than most and that the tiny float makes for some chaotic trading. That said, having heard the CC and listened to the enthusiasm expressed pretty much by each analyst, it's pretty surprising that the stock was up so little, especially given the overall market euphoria. I suppose the gains from last Friday's run-up post the ABH announcement are still being fully digested. I believe, though, that the company is hitting on all cylinders and that a further move upwards is to occur shortly. Agree that this might come when ABH fills in the details on its S1!!

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