With the discussion over the weekend about the mark to be hit on earnings (this is my opinion) I think the market is saying that it will be in on the high side. Again, this is to be taken with the action up to this point. Remember that they have ALWAYS been conservative and will not make the mistake of missing or dissappointing the guidance figures. The action of last week may have been the "walk-down" in order to cover. I remember seeing a block of about 70K in AH on one of the days it was at 26.50 (or so).
right - the quality of most video on demand ove the net stinks right now - NOT DVD QUALITY or anywhere near it. But it will come sooner than we imagine I am sure. And most users will need some tivo like device to record it - I don't like ordering a movie that i have to watch without being able to pause, take breaks, watch a scene over, etc...
> Oh, they have indicated that their goals are much loftier than DVDs by mail.
yep, and then there's:
>>Today, it can cost more than $30 to send a DVD-quality film over the Internet. As that figure drops, Hastings will consider going digital. "In five to ten years, we'll have some downloadables as well as DVDs," he says. "By having both, we'll offer a full service."<<
The above taken from
Now I can't predict I'll still be long on NFLX
in 5-10 years, but for now, it seems they're
not overlooking anything, IMHO.
They have to be really careful on this. They don't want to give any indications that they are being forced into VOD because growth is slowing (at least until they hit 5 million subscribers).
Once that happens they can start migrating customers over to VOD, provided they have a solution. I'm sure some R&D is going into solving that problem now.
Oh, they have indicated that their goals are much loftier than DVDs by mail.
I think Hastings one said something like "We're Netflix. We would have called ourselves 'DVDs by mail' if that was all we intended on doing".
SOW...couldn't agree w/ you MORE regarding AOL and NFLX. As I have traded in and out of this stock several times (thankfully long currently!) the one thing that I have always thought is how this is similar to AOL in its begining move...including the high short interest that propelled AOL back in the 90s.
yes, AOL had a better "story". NFLX too is a story stock, but definitely not as sexy... yet.
If NFLX were to start making noise about future moves into VOD, things could heat up considerably. AOL had a great customer base, but its real promise was in milking its ISP customers for other services. It really failed in that endeavour and also lost many of its original customers due to a poor understanding of the changing marketplace.
NFLX is an early AOL in a sense. It has a huge customer growth story. Its challenge if it is to gain "story stock" status is to convey a compelling story that explains how it will significantly increase its per customer profit in coming years.