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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • gurudedinero gurudedinero Jan 21, 2004 7:52 PM Flag

    NFLX Subscriber Churn

    5:18pm 01/21/04 Netflix CEO: 'Confident' of churn below 5% in 2004 - CBS

    Are you kidding me?? NFLX is an aged model. With Comcast On-Demand and AOL Downloads, this doesn't seem reasonable? Call me crazy but, I suspect that much more than 5% of current subscribers will churn in '04...


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    • All good points... NFLX cut cost dramatically over current BBI model. Congrats to NFLX and their shareholders. And, at the present time, this may be the best model out there.

      With that said let's take a look forward. It's all about sustainability. What I'm questioning here is not the current situation of NFLX but rather it's future outcome.

      I suspect the cost of delivering VOD will be 1/10 of the cost of delievering Fed Ex. So when VOD penetrates and NFLX churn begins to rise... What next?

    • Then you would probably be incorrect. Look at the trends, churn decreases .3% Q over Q, it did it this time too.

      Suspect what you will, put your money where your DD is.

      • 1 Reply to chapel_of_words
      • Thanks for the info. on Churn Trends. And, I agree. Low in the past...

        However, in my personal opinion, I feel that these trends can not sustain becasue of the two reasons that I mentioned in the previous email... (AOL & Comcast)

        The NetFlix model is aged... You can see this with their last hour rally to get into the download business. In my opinion, too little to late... With all of that said, this stock is out of control and all rational thought seems to have gone out the door long time ago.

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