I've decided to hold off for now. None of my exit strategies have been triggered (they were profitable in Q2 after all) and I agree that this stock moves up and down quite a bit. If we stay at this level for more than a week it will represent something more than a quick punishing of the stock..though I don't necessarily think we'll jump back up to $30 overnight again either unless a big business win comes out.
I am tooling my exit strategies however a little bit...currently two are on deck: quarter to quarter increase in SAC or increase in Churn. However with ongoing profitability forecasted (and I realize that's an "if scenario") those might need to be fine tuned. I think churn remains a high priority as it's fundamental to the business but if SAC goes up while profits remain stable that's not as bad a scenario as SAC going up without being able to be profitable.
I do think BBI is being *very* savvy with their beta site. It's "beta", so nothing on it they're actually held too including the quoted price. They can float that price until Q4 and make NetFlix sweat and then decide then if they actually wish to offer at that price or not. No way for them to lose really with the beta-site at this time.
Chapel, still holding on, I thought you'd been "SAC"ed and "churn"ed so hard you should say ouch now. Anyway, I took some profits today, still holding a couple of hundred Sep puts so I can read your indepth analysis.
I'm disappointed in you chapel. You stated a few months ago that you would sell if Netflix had a bad quarter. Well they did. Wall street and who ever didnt like what they saw....Of course what you do is your own business, but at least say that you have sold some to lock some of your profits. Your not riding this all the way down are you?