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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • thisisnotananagram thisisnotananagram Jul 7, 2008 12:10 PM Flag

    bad sign: earnings scheduled for a friday

    first time in the company's history. in the land of PR, fridays are reserved for bad news.

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    • great! I didnt buy in yet. This puppy goes down to $19 a share, as the market tumbles and when gas is $6 a gallon and everyone is staying home to save money, netflix will benefit. Hey, it might be soon considered a "defensive" growth stock. LOL I might buy in right before next earnings which is about when the market might catch a bounce. Expect netflix to get slaughtered as the market continues its decent unless earnings are blowout.

    • All the shorts are going to be disappointed yet again. The stock will rally upto and beyond the earnings release as it has over many previous quarters., The fact that the earnings announcement is BEFORE the bell bodes very well. if the numbers were not going to be better than expected..they would schedule the CC AFTER the closing not BEFORE. This is a great time to accumulate more if you have the cash....Don't trust my words, just look at the pattern for the past few quarters before earnings release. I think the biggest surprise will be how well netflix is signing new custoemrs and how well the netflix box is being received.

      • 1 Reply to diligent_investorr
      • twentyfirstcenturyschizoidman twentyfirstcenturyschizoidman Jul 7, 2008 6:36 PM Flag

        Last quarter they announced after the close on a monday. On tuesday the stock dropped over 20%.


        I'd say that puts a hole in your theory.


        Don't get too excited about "how fast netlix is signing new customers". The second quarter is the seasonally worst quarter. Last year they had a net sub loss in Q2. I guess it's possible that everyone is expecting a sub loss so adding 100k could look good.

        I'd expect them to be pretty tight lipped about the netflix box due to "competitive reasons". They won't say how many units sold, just that the sales exceeded their expectations or something like that. They may offer some information regarding the mix of existing customers vs new customers but I wouldn't count on it.

        The bright spot from Q1 was the historically low sac. If they can maintain that, add a significant amount of subs and beat earnings the stock might have a chance in the short term. Upping full year guidance wouldn't hurt either.

        Personally, I don't see this happening. Either sac will be up, churn will be up, usage will be up or whatever.

 
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