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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • bobbobwhite bobbobwhite Feb 18, 2010 12:50 PM Flag

    17 X book

    As a value investor 17+X book is Disney Fantasyland territory to me. 2X book is my absolute high end for outright stock purchase(mostly buy calls if avail.). At 17X book, do longs know how many years profit is already in the present stock price? Only a 400+% yr/yr growth would justify anything near this price. And, those loony years ended with the dot.com bust and are certainly just wishful dreaming today.

    June$65 calls, or for the very optimistic, June$75 calls would be the cheapest and most prudent way to play this one long that will eventually come down to earth from the next big thing, bringing bigger trouble for cash longs.

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    • The problem here is one of name exposure/publicity and the fact that the company is doing well can lead to huge jumps in price. In micro stocks I can think of a couple cases where 25xbook and a similar PE ratio were achieved before the bubble popped. Make no mistake you are right that the bubble will pop, but it there is too much money looking for what appears to be a safe haven right now and this stock is being treated like a micro because of its relatively low market cap and the amount of money looking for a solid company which this company is. My guess is that it will stay inflated until the first negative news comes out and then it will dump hard, but that could be a long way off rather than around the corner. Perhaps a quarter or two away I think. Could be sooner but because so many shorts are piling in right now there is likely to be another counterintuitive jump to unreasonable PE ratios based on mildly good news and an incredibly hard short squeeze. Briefly too many people are trying to jump in on the fact they know its going to drop without considering how high this stock can go on the simply basis of their short positions moving in. They forget the stock price reacts to their movements as well as fundamentals. Even if this stock dumped to 10 bucks a share it does shorts very little good if it jumps to 90 bucks a share or some other ridiculous level before it dumps down to reasonable levels.

 
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