i'm holding NFLX $95 June puts, held since Friday May 21st, kept adding, ran out of money, i'm basically ALL IN on those puts now, down like -80% in them, but i'm staying strong, and I suggest those who are stuck with NFLX short positions do the same, because the chart says it's at unsustainable highs, and macroeconomic fears will dominate in the coming weeks.
my personal price target for NFLX is $85.
my personal GOD is Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Spain downgrade today means Spain will struggle to roll over its debt further, and it means we're looking at a very probable banking crisis over there, which will of course send equities lower all across the board.
I think what's happening right now, in the U.S. equities space at least (and i'm only referring to that space), is that capital flowing OUT of the banks and financials gradually (JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, AIG), and flowing into the perceived strength of the U.S. tech companies like AAPL, GOOG, IBM, and NFLX as the "growth" pick.
the problem with NFLX is that it's facing rising costs, and the fact that their CEO Reed Hastings is dumping 10,000 shares once or twice every week shows that there's less upside than downside. why else would he be selling?
so Hastings selling is supportive evidence that NFLX is at highs, and will trend lower.
all it takes is patience, ZEN-MONK-LIKE patience.
just turn your cotddamned computer off, stop obsessively checking finance websites, stop looking at your brokerage account, because you may get emotional and close your NFLX position, willingly taking a loss when, if you are patient, you will see some nice tasty green profit gains soon.
Google makes the free platform, and then they make money off of it. For example, they made Android, and then sold their proprietary phone...
It's the same thing with Google TV, they will make their proprietary streaming program (the cost of streaming for Google is significantly less than Netflix due to their massive grid)... Google is going to blow Netflix away, but at the same time they will offer Netflix, to keep the FCC off them.
I am not a short in terms of I think NFLX is a bad stock of course, I just made the decision two days ago to go naked 1 June 115 call...collected 2.39 premium. So I keep it all if NFLX trades under 115 by June expiration and break-even is 117.39.
Any thoughts on this move?
Thanks in advance.