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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • espero40 espero40 Aug 4, 2010 3:50 PM Flag

    USPS and Netflx

    I mail a DVD on Saturday and it arrives 200mi away at the distro center on Monday, I mail a letter to the same town it arrives 3-4 business days--Netflix is using USPS only for the last mile, they pick up the DVD and transport by truck between distro centers or contact with overnight carrier--does any truly believe the USPS will cut a volume user like Netflix when mail delivery is dropping like a rock across the country?

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      Money is what drives this elite!! The lust for wealth; the lust for money - this is the common denominator for ALL members of the Davos Culture; the terms "liberal," "conservative," "secular," "religious," "Christian," "humanist" are all useless in "identifying" the members of this elite. Depending on the historical circumstance and the exigencies of the moment, the Davos Elite co-opts this or that label to "identify" itself; but the label is meaningless; it's merely a temporary mask or a momentary contrivance.

      The very real truth is, the Davos Elite is not driven by principle; its only real concern centers around its own greedy, self-absorbed life-style and its preoccupation with piling up ever greater amounts of material wealth and worldly treasure. And for what purpose? - there is none! Remarkably, that's it: the accumulation of money! - that's its goal! There is nothing beyond that except an eerie and frightening emptiness - and then the grave! And though many in the Davos Elite preserve a certain front of "purpose" and "idealism" in their lives, there is nothing behind that "front" except a vacuum - a hollowness that resembles the emptiness of a body without a soul. Their idealism is nothing more than a subterfuge, a contrivance, a masquerade - an excuse for what really drives them, which is the actual process of wealth accumulation - which they presume is the measure of a man's worth. They are utterly blind to the contempt and loathing that ordinary people have for them - and completely oblivious to the disconnect that separates them from the masses; and that "disconnect" is growing! - especially as it relates to wealth accumulation.

      Take the United States, for example, where four percent of the American population (approximately 3.8 million individuals and families) has in the past few decades managed to capture for itself through "restructuring," "free trade," "union busting," and unfettered immigration (which forces wages down) $452 billion in wages and salaries on an annual basis - the same as the annual wages and salaries of the bottom fifty-one percent (49.2 million individuals and families). And even this isn't enough; with each passing year more and more of this nation's wealth pours into their hands by "hook and by crook," much of which used to be held in the hands of the American middle class in the 1950s and '60s - and their is no sign that this phenomenon is abating.3

    • all these news? but clear message: NETFLIX is hated by Studios for new content

      On the Call: Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman
      On the Call: Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman says Redbox rentals aren't hurting DVD sales

      Companies:Netflix, Inc.Time Warner Inc.Viacom, Inc.

      On Thursday August 5, 2010, 5:17 pm
      NEW YORK (AP) -- Media executives are split on what to do about flagging DVD sales.

      This week, Time Warner Inc. CEO Jeffrey Bewkes said deals with Netflix Inc. and Redbox that postpone rentals of new releases for 28 days have helped drive more lucrative retail sales for its Warner Bros. movie studio.

      But Viacom Inc. CEO Philippe Dauman doesn't buy it. In a conference call with analysts Thursday, Dauman said the arrangement between Redbox and Viacom's Paramount Pictures film studio is a better deal. In a 10-month test, Paramount has allowed Redbox to offer new releases the same day they go on sale in exchange for higher fees upfront.

      QUESTION: On your deal with Redbox, I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on the data that you have obviously seen in terms of the impact of your window on DVD sales.

      ANSWER: Unlike some of our competitors who were in litigation with Redbox, we had an agreement that gave us actual data over a 10-month period. So we had objective information.

      That data showed us that there was extremely little degradation in DVD sales, and the financial terms offered by Redbox for an earlier window far outweighed that degradation.

      Our competitors who have the 28-day window are getting much lower pricing in their Redbox deal. So thanks to our actually having real-world data, unlike our competitors, we were able to make what we think is the best decision for us.


    • Lion Broadcasting issue DUMP this bubble ASAP rating vs ALL INSTITUTIONAL CRIMINAL CROOKS







      Google and Verizon Near Deal on Pay Tiers for Web




    • Postal rate hike and now goog/verizon news will put final nail in netflix scam streaming hype future coffin


    • Add this tnt bomb news and this scam bust will be too fast like
      this is why these criminals in flee dump mode

      google/verizon news will put nail in the coffin for netflix streaming scam hype

      must pay the broadband pipe to stream.......amen

      any one who does not escape this scam now........good luck in slaughter trap hell


    • Similarity of Netflix to AOL:

      It is interesting to compare Netflix’s current situation to AOL’s in 1999, as AOL arguably was facing a similar dilemma as Netflix does now. Netflix’s current business is being replaced by a technological advance, much in the same way AOL’s slow dial-up internet service was replaced by fast internet. Like AOL was in 1999 prior to its merger with Time Warner, Netflix does not own content or a delivery mechanism for its service. In 1999, AOL had the advantage of being a major internet portal and when they merged with Time Warner in 2000 they acquired content and a cable system with 13 million customers to go with AOL’s 20 million subscribers. The merger was supposed to have provided a national and international platform to distribute and promote Time Warner’s products and logically it seemed to make sense, but it didn’t work as envisioned. In January 2000, prior to the merger, AOL’s market cap was $163B. Recently it was $2.3B – less than 2% of its market cap 10 years earlier. As the AOL experience shows, it is not easy to transition a business in the face of stiff competition. AOL had the advantage of already being an internet service provider, so they weren’t entering a new business, and they had a subscriber base of over 20 million. With the Time Warner merger they gained content and a cable company with 13 million customers. At that point they had 33 million total customers, content, a cable company and a major internet portal. All AOL had to do was keep the 20 million dial-up subscribers and transition them to fast internet. But in spite of those advantages, in 10 years AOL’s subscriber base decreased from 20 million to about 5 million.


      1 – Slide presentation by Netflix:

      Disclosure: No position in Netflix stock

      this scam will be pink sheet in 2011/2012

    • I think Netflix gets a special rate and USPS can't lose them so postage doesn't affect their bottomline as much.

      • 6 Replies to chkpfbeliever
      • manipulation gang?lol

        Analysts Worry About Netflix Stock Value
        Posted by Shane Smith on Jul 22, 2010 under news

        Despite some solid growth revealed during Netflix’s Q2 financials report yesterday, investors punished its stock, dropping its value by double digits over the last two days. Several analysts have expressed the concern that Netflix’s share price has reached its peak, at least for the near-term.

        Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is concerned about Netflix’s “staggering” drop in ARPU (average revenue per user) as more and more subscribers forgo the company’s more expensive plans and choose the $8.99 per month option. Said Pachter:

        “We saw a greater than expected drop [in ARPU], which suggests that an incremental million subscribers shifted from higher priced plans,”

        Pachter went on to echo Netflix CEO Reed Hastings by saying that the company would be “challenged” to keep up its rapid growth for much longer:

        “We think investors will continue to focus on ARPU as a predictor of earnings growth . . . We expect its premium valuation to collapse,”

        Merriman Curhan Ford analyst Eric Wold feels that despite Netflix’s “near monopolistic” grip on the by-mail movie rental business, there’s not much room for growth built into its stock price. Said Wold:

        “We continue to believe any potential [earnings per share] upside in the next few years is priced into [Netflix] shares at current levels – and recommend investors wait for a better entry point to accumulate further positions,”

        Over to you, Insiders. Where will Netflix’s shares go from here? Can the company beat analysts’ (and its own CEO’s) predictions and keep growing? Leave your opinion in the comments.

      • AND THIS
        If you aren’t familiar with some of the inner workings of the film industry, here’s a basic primer of the current system. After a film is released in theaters, it is then released on DVD/Blu-ray and depending on the studio and the viewing window, to Pay-Per View, Redbox or Video-on-Demand. After the new-release window ends, bigger films go into what is called the first-run window, where they are then available on a premium cable channel like HBO, Showtime, Starz, etc. After this window, films are then dribbled down to basic cable, network television and so on.

        Although Netflix’s Watch Instantly library is growing all of the time, one area where it really falls short is in new releases. This is not the case with Netflix’s DVD and Blu-ray rental-by-mail service, however. Netflix has a vast catalog of Watch Instantly films, but most of them are older releases and the most up-to-date content is usually by way of television, which is easier to license for more recent viewing.

        The big exception in this area has been with Starz. Netflix was able to procure a deal with Starz to get movies (or Starz original broadcasts) as soon as they come to Starz subscribers. While Starz doesn’t have the first-run deals of the largest premium cablers like HBO, it does have some exclusive deals with Disney/Pixar and with a lot of Sony films.

        Because Starz retained ownership of how it licensed its content digitally (that is, over the Internet), the company was then able to license that content to Netflix, giving Netflix access to its first-run content. It was a brilliant run around the system. Unfortunately, it also made the major studios pretty unhappy.

        The current Starz deal expires in 2012 and it won’t be the same in the future. Instead, studios are now building more digital licensing agreements into their contracts with the premium cable outlets to avoid a Netflix-Starz scenario from happening again.

        The only recourse for Netflix is to make deals directly with the studios, which is exactly what is happening with Relativity Media.

      • An analyst told Barron’s earlier this month that such a hike would the increase the video rental service’s costs by $18 million to $30 million a year. The MPA said the hike would cost members – already trying to forge a comeback following a crippling advertising recession -- millions more.

        Yet Netflix has come out in support of the U.S.P.S.’ “Action Plan for the Future,” announced in March, which includes a rate hike and five-day delivery schedule. A spokesperson for Netflix told TheWrap that the company does not support any one individual action proposed by the Postal Service, but supports the plan “in totality.” (This stance seems to mirror Netflix's steady migration away from sending members DVDs to streaming them -- the company recently boasted 61 percent of its customers have tried streaming movies on-demand.)

        The Postal Rate Commission has until October 4 to rule on the U.S.P.S. proposal. Stay tuned.

      • $30M OR $50M??LOL

        USPS losses motivate proposed rate hikes

        USPS continues to face losses as a result of declining mail volume in a weak economy. Despite $6 billion in cost-cutting measures, the U.S. government agency posted net loss of $3.8 billion in 2009, up from a $2.8 billion loss in 2008. During the same period, mail volume declined by about 12%, from 202 billion to 177 billion.

        In an effort to resolve its budget crisis, USPS is asking Congress to authorize tiered rate hikes: 8% increase for periodicals, 23% for standard mail parcels and 7% for media or library mail. If these increases go through, Netflix faces shipping cost increases in the range of 7% to 8%.

        Netflix could face increased costs of about $30 million in 2011

        In the past, USPS rates have increased at a low annual rate of about 1% to 2% each year. We currently expect Netflix’s postage cost per DVD to rise by about 2% in 2011, to 44 cents. The proposed rate hikes would boost this cost to 46 cents, yielding total incremental shipping costs of $30 million for next year.

      • why guess?
        Facts are available;7% hike is done deal

        I think?lol

    • Rimm : all predictions hold true from lion broadcasting

      it was a push email spy scam

      i revealed it here long time ago and predicted demise of spy push email by 2010/2011

      and rimm scam will in bust pit like palm

      and balsillie and lizard crooks got rewarded in billions for their spy scam work

      all nations now will ban and shut out blackberry push email spy scam

      what is left?

      java scam os?lol

      retail fools in love with silicon scam gadgets and have no clue to business models

    • software (including game consoles, Blu-Ray players, and some TVs). However, the current selection of streaming titles is rather poor, as the company has not obtained licensing rights for many high-quality movies, most likely because Netflix is unwilling to pay what the studios demand. And because the first sale doctrine doesn't apply to digital content, Netflix does not have the option of acquiring cheap content through third parties. We think this works in the studios' favor, as they can license similar content to multiple distributors, preventing Netflix from gaining a "selection" advantage.
      While we recognize this evolution could take a few years to play out, we expect Netflix's subscriber growth to slow dramatically in the future as consumers have more options to find and consume similar content. Additionally, although we expect content costs to rise, we think Netflix may need to lower prices in light of competition. We also expect new subscribers to continue choosing lower priced plans, causing the company's average subscription price to continue to fall. As a result, we forecast the company's revenue to flatline, and eventually decline, after solid growth during the next few years.
      In addition, we expect higher content costs to more than offset lower distribution and fulfillment costs for digital delivery. According to Adams Media Research, studios retain about 65% of cable video-on-demand revenues. Assuming an average price point of $5, this means the studios are receiving about $3.25 per movie, compared with just $0.54 per movie from Netflix. However, video-on-demand titles are primarily new releases, whereas about two thirds of Netflix's rentals are cheap, catalog titles. Assuming that this holds true in the digital world for Netflix, we estimate that the company would pay about $1.50 per movie. At $1.50 per movie, Netflix's gross margin would fall to 22.4% for digital delivery compared with 35.3% for Netflix in 2009. We assume that in 10 years, Netflix's business will be equally divided between disc rentals and digital rentals, resulting in a gross margin of 28.9% (halfway between 35.3% and 22.4%) by 2019. As a result, we project the company's operating margin to fall by the end of our forecast period, despite lower operating expenses. Further, if our estimates for digital content costs are too conservative and they are actually $2.00 per movie, Netflix's gross margin would basically be zero.
      We fully recognize that Netflix is poised to deliver solid financial results in the near term, and its shares are likely to reflect this momentum. However, we think the competitive landscape will change dramatically as digital distribution gains steam. As a result, when looking at the long-term prospects for cash flow generation, we think the shares are currently overvalued.

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