You may not be far off. I have seen some odd things in this stock that have yet to be properly explained. How about dropping 5 buck in a minute (not during the Flahcrash) and then bouncing to the same level? Or a two day sell off and then recovery to the same level? These are statistical anomolies. I hate to use the word "manipulate", but it looks like sometimes the specialist just gets out of the way and doesn't cover the other side of the trade. Very odd. As for all of this buying, this is just retail gone wild. Nobody wants to miss out on the next rip, just like the guy on this board that bought at 121 and sold at 141. He was one of the smart ones - he bought when others sold, NOT when they are buying. This is herd mentality at its worst. A great stock at 100, a cautious one at 120, a dangerous one at 140. I am going to sell calls around next earnings, as well. The new EPIX deal is a cash drain and they will not blow away the number like everyone wants them to.
You are correct - this is a double top. But here is where I am a little concerned: the market is totally decoupling from reality. Funds are starved for yield and plowing money into the market. The bids have not stopped all week. Also, retail is all over NFLX like ugly on an ape. Every second rate "news" source is pumping NFLX and have been since before the AAPL announcement. Essentially, we had panic buying at the open and all day on Monday so traders could cover their winnings/shorts from August, sending the market parabolic. On top of that, there just are not many sellers right now. Loads of new money in NFLX this week with all of the hype, and new money is the most stubborn kind. These people are convinced that NFLX will got to a 1000 and they are not going to just bail right away. And without a market pull-back there is no impetus to shake out the weak hands. The pros will ride this trade until it is broken, i.e. when retail realizes they are the greater fool and the last to buy at the top. NFLX is the new popular stock and while I agree that the longs who buy now, and presumably will sell when we get a real nasty dip, will get their faces ripped off, this is really dangerous euphoria buying. Just look at these posts - NFLX going to 200...Stock Split Coming, etc. It is spooky. And all of this with the Chairman and Officer dumping large blocks of shares into the rally this week. That should tell you everything you need to know. If they were gonna split it, would they sell 15,000 shares to get some fast money? Would they sell at 130 and 135 respectively? No F-in' way. Those in the know are getting paid while retail props them up. As you know, insiders CAN trade even with inside knowledge if they just file the 10b5. Retail buyers should be done soon, but the day traders will buy and sell this thing until they find another sandbox to play in, and that will keep the price artificially high. In short, the double top is crystal clear, but if the market won't sell off, NFLX might hang tough.