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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • mayerbci mayerbci Sep 6, 2010 4:08 PM Flag

    $138 is an illusion

    NFLX is whipping back and forth because of it's 30% short. It just adds artifically to it's daily volumn creating bigger moves. It hits $142 in a rush and then slides back as short covering starts to ease. The lessening short covering reduces buying this reduces the buy percent leading to a declining price. As the short term recognition decreases the kneejerk reaction to cover is abated. So NFLX floats back down, down, down. Pick it up at $120, $115, $110...and short profit taking increases, increasing buying...and it'll move back up. Who benefits the most? Market makers creating volatility in NFLX. Investors, traders win and lose.

    Personally, as a company NFLX is fine but as an investment the numbers don't match the stock price. Way overvalued in today's market. Their growth while moving up does not warrant it's high PE and price.

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    • Are you shorting this stock?

      I shorted to early last time but building a short position in the $140 range.

      Whats your thoughts....

      • 1 Reply to dmansmiley1
      • 90 Sept/Oct contracts of $130, $135 and $140 Puts. Find it hard to find shares to short and feel strongly that this is a huge downside opportunity. Was way overbought given it's risen on hype (i.e. Jim Cramer and AppleTV) and not reality. Was $100 and sliding before this gunk.

        Decided it was a huge overreaction to this Apple biz. Reminds me of the .coms when they made deals and stocks would skyrocket with financial impact that is years away and not significant at all. I first had Netflix on my Roku box which then magically added Amazon.com and other options. Then I got a Samsung TV and it has builyt in apps that eliminate my Roku box. AppleTV will follow and AppleTV itself is on the outside looking in on this. Plus more and more options like hulu are make it clear that content distribution can have many players with little startup. There's no way any one company has the slightest chance to own video content distribution. Can have a nice company but no product offering these companies has can maintain it's growth. NFLX can be replaced or aquire tougher competition in a day.

 
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