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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

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  • nvc_invstr nvc_invstr Sep 10, 2010 9:14 PM Flag

    Is There a Rational Person Around?

    This stock moves purely on momentum and technicals. It is currently 20 and 30 percent above the 50 and 200 day moving averages. It is due for a pull back but with such a large short float (over 20%) the shorts keep getting squeezed. Even though the stock has not dropped yet, there have been net money outflows in the last 2 days. Be very careful. Once the MACD drops below the signal line, triggered by either a downgrade or overall market weakness, this stock will drop into the 130s faster than it moved from 120 to just under 150. BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE LONG. The smart money looks like its starting to pull out.

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    • I'm replying to my original post to detail the trade I placed on the day I posted the first message in the hopes that others might benefit. If anyone finds it useful and would like to know more, please let me know and I would be happy to explain further. It is based on an options strategy that I used to generate a profit on NFLX stock in 5 trading days that had a net cash outlay of 0. On Sept 10, when NFLX was trading at around $147, I sold the SEPT 155 calls for 1.88 and bought the SEPT 145/140 put spread for 1.83 for a net cost of -.05.
      On Sept 16th, 5 trading days later when NFLX was trading at just above $141, I sold the put spread for 2.92 and closed out the call position for .02 for a net gain of 2.95. Each position was 5 contracts with each contract representing 100 shares for a total profit of 2.95 x 500 = $1475 - $50 commissions = $1425 net profit.

      The only risk in the trade would have been if NFLX would have closed above $155 at SEPT options expiration (ie today), I would be short the stock.

      I did not see that as a big risk due to the over-valuation of NFLX and the recent run-up that had the stock over 20% above it's 50 day Moving Avg. Worst case I would have been happy to short it at $155. The benefit of this strategy is that you can make a decent amount a money in a short time, without out capital outlay. Plus you have a nice buffer before you actually have to put a short position in place worst case. Note that you do have to have enough capital reserve available to short the stock in the event that upon expiration, NFLX closes above the strike price of the calls that you sold.

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