% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Netflix, Inc. Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the posts
  • scamp_75204 scamp_75204 Sep 10, 2010 10:00 PM Flag

    Is There a Rational Person Around?

    I don't think you are going to get a good answer. The traders (me) will tell you that the technicals are garbage and this is do for a pullback. The fundamental view (also me) is that the NFLX business model was a surprise success, and now to maintain their place in the streaming pecking order they are having to pay a premium for content, with absolutely no guaranty of keeping current customers, let along getting new ones. The people with long positions will give you all kinds of derivative equations to figure out the TRUE valuation/PE, i.e. doing calculations based on future value and past performance as a way to voodoo themselves into sleeping at night (Enron also did this type of math). In short, there is no way anyone, anywhere, can give you a simple, Wharton Business School modeling of the business plan and the current valuation and not have it be highly suspect and highly, severely reliant on all kinds of things happening perfectly in the future.
    The only thing I will tell you if you are considering going long is, A) wait for a pullback, and B) this is momentum stock that can give you a fast ROI if you buy right. Other than that, there are no fundamentals that any self-respecting money manager can point to justify paying this price. This reminds me of the geniuses that modeled real estate prices in 2006 and explained why they would appreciate indefinitely. For every bubble, there is an imbecile with an abacus that helps suck new money into the vortex.

91.54-1.57(-1.69%)May 3 4:00 PMEDT