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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • jocko8752 jocko8752 Oct 7, 2010 4:07 PM Flag

    Technical Analysis

    Here is my analysis based on what I practice:

    We had a nice little Doji appear today, not perfect but pretty close. This is a signal of indecision between traders, also low volume compared to recently.

    Stochastics are still bearish and haven't gotten into oversold territory yet, signalling there could definitely be more room to the downside.

    The Doji in itself isn't really a strong reversal pattern. If tomorrow has a strong upward move on good volume and closes over the 50% line of the difference of yesterday's high and low, that would be a morning star (bullish).

    The key is, look at price action tomorrow. If we have a black candle, it'll confirm we aren't oversold yet. Today's action makes this one a tough call at this exact moment, so we must look to tomorrow(or maybe even early next week) for a better sign.

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    • We had a really ugly doji yesterday but nonetheless there was a bullish pattern, if this stock ends green today we're going to have a run up and if it ends red we're going down to establish a new range. Today is an important day!

      Judging from very early pre-market it's looking like a red day, sell sell sell!

    • Interestingly one of the posters pointed out last week "dark cloud cover" reversal pattern formed on 8/18 reversing the trends started from 7/29, and then again last week on 10/1 reversing the trend formed on 8/25.

      Prior to this, trend from 5/21 was broken on 6/21 and
      interestingly using Fibonacci Retracements, trend of 5/21 retraced at 50% level on 7/1.

      Trend of 7/29 retraced at 50% on 8/25
      and now with Doji sitting at 50% retracement levels lets see how much validity 50% retracement can hold.

      • 1 Reply to fin_mkt
      • I had made a few posts about the Dark Clouds that appeared last week and also back in August, not sure if you were referring to that post or not.

        Hey everyone, thanks so much for your additional comments and analysis. I love seeing how everyone else is reading this, and as a relatively new technical analyst, feels good to see some of the more experienced TA's confirming what I see.

        Some people mock the candlestick analysis, but when used correctly, I have found it to be very accurate in calling reversals.

    • I see a stamagtite converging with a stalagmite in the convergance of these planets with scorpio meeting pices with a 157 price target tomorrow or next week.
      I need some room to play, like everyone else.

      How about that folks.


      • 1 Reply to opinionsarelike33
      • certainly a good start, but you fail to take into account the history of gaps here. NFLX is doing a very natural thing here. TA is very effective here, where the technicals are solely what's being traded.

        Go back five days, check the gap. Go back six more, check the gap.

        The close below the 20 is VERY significant, along with the doji. It means shorts did not cover at such a critical juncture.

        The trendline is broken. There will likely be a thrust up to clear out weak shorts, but I see 120 quite soon. Below 140 many will be taking losses and not profits, and this a race to the exits when 147.75 breaks.

        Not tomorrow certainly, but soon. Very soon.

    • BBands touching the lower band with 10DMA middle band crossed
      Fibonaci Retracement testing 50% which was previously tested as ressitance area on 9/13
      10 DAY ADX still above 40

      % R still short of touching oversold levels
      Continuous pullback from 9/30 on shrinking volume and todays doji with indecision between buyers and sellers is indicative of sell off is nearing
      confirmation is needed for near term reversal which could be side ways as well as upward.

    • NFLX did about what all of the high flying tech stocks did today, so I did not take anything away from today's action. If we have a hard move up on decent volume that does not get sold off before noon, time to cover for now.

96.67+5.19(+5.67%)Jul 1 4:00 PMEDT