What makes you think the stock will open up below $100.00 Subscribers would need to grow under 1.5 million and forcasts would need to site competition. I believe the big players are coming into this space and will eventually hurt them.
They will miss on at least one of the metrics and then magically the word "valuation" will become relevant to all of the pumpers again. If they really blow it on subs or topline, it loses 20 points without blinking AH. If they are in line but don't blow out, I expect it to open around 140 +/- in the AM and then bleed back to 120ish from there over the next month. You saw what the market did to IBM and AAPL, the latter of which earned 20 BILLION dollars last quarter and has actual products that people buy hand over fist. My personal feeling is the NFLX will have to do some kind of internal balance sheet pencil whipping to offset their acquisition costs. Those alone should pummel the shares.
Fall below $100 and than skyrocket to $200. It almost happened during last earnings. Remember, in the end, NFLX can only go up. I heard that they are expanding to the Southern Moon colonies.
It's coming down tomorrow, but not to under $100. Down about 15%, which puts it around $128.
I bought 20 $150 puts on monday, for $9.65, swich seemed a bit steep at the time. But I planned on holding them thru earnings, and then decide whether to hold 'em or fold 'em.
We'll see tomorrow.