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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • retailknowledge254 retailknowledge254 Dec 4, 2010 11:19 AM Flag

    I am utterly amazed at the posters on this board

    that are acting like the crime of the century was committed because a stock that went from $48 to $209 is trading at $185. Honestly, doesn't anyone long think that the price is somewhat over inflated. If a stock can run up like that it can run down too. The drop yesterday was such a small percentage. Look at how much like a giant like CSCO dropped in one day last month. And those that thought CSCO would bounce were wrong, it has dropped even more since. The problem people are having here is they are looking at the dollar amount this stock drops, not the percent. CSCO lost 20% in a day and they are a 110 billion dollar company with 40 billion in free cash and is trading at a PE of about 13 and next year P/E of 10. And they did not miss earnings either. The 20 percent drop was cuased by the CEO saying that revenue will be up the next two quarters but not as much as analysts projected. Not that they are going to lose money, not that they are going to make less than the year before, he still see greater growth. Just not as much growth in q1 and q2. But still growth. CSCO is down over 30 percent from it's 52 week high anf they are a giant of a company and a Dow 30 stock. So NFLX drops 20 percent or more. It had a ridiculous run up. CSCO did not have a run up. So what NFLX trades at 120-130. Really, what is so odd about a stock retracing after an extraordinary run up. It happens every day.
    What shocks me is how the posters here behave. Gosh almighty, you act like someone comitted the crime of the century. What is so out of the ordinary if NFLX trades at a valuation more in line with earnings annd projected earnings. At around $90 a share it would be trading at a P/E of about 35 for this year and 25 for next. Roughly still 300 % more than what CSCO is trading at. This is but one example there are so many past and present. I really, really have to say I am utterly amazed at the expectations and expressed outrage on this board. A drop of 20 percent or more in a few weeks is thought of to be imcomprehensible by some here. But a rise of almost 400% in a year is common?
    Come on already.

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    • If u look at it this stock has treaded water during the markets strongest month. this one is teetering on the brink of a big slide down

    • NFLX is not the type of stock right now you would want to fall in love with. It is analaogous to a whore. You paid for it and enjoyed it, now you discard it. Hence longs who got in cheap should dump this before their profits get ghonnnerea.

    • Crime of the century yes

      reed hasting criminal thug and gang headlines in 2011

      lion broadcasting relentless fight .........

      all facts vs analyst criminal shills

      have been put on record

      war is on

    • very wrong . CSCO has limited possibilities to grow the way NFLX does . Their platform could be expanded to multiple applications very fast and could be a worldwide company.. Look at GOOG which is multimedia company as NFLX is, by your theory would never arrived at 600 dollars.give it a rest ,please.

      • 1 Reply to ancohold
      • I agree and disagree with you. True CSCO is not a growth play right, but it has solid fundamentals and likely due to track back up after the irrational sell off. I can alo afford development in many areas.

        Besides the fact that NFLX owns nothing, it is is extremely restricted by a lack of cash and limited sub growth. To do anything at all, it will have to pay more and charge a time when competitors are offering bargains.

        Also...people have to accept that NFLX has been easy to manipulate because of it's small float. Now that the talking heads are expressing concern, the MMs will move on.

    • Such great points...and well-stated.

      I think the bigger problem is the longs who don't understand how and why it became so bloated.

      It is not only naive, but uninformed to think this company is "great" and worthy of the pumped pps. Anywone who understand the underlying fundamentals will conclude the same as you.

      I'll go one further...I believe CSCO is a buying opportunity right now, and I purchased LEAP puts on the drop last month!

    • Amen brutha! Well said. A LOT of people around these boards need to get a clue or two. They have NO concept of company valuations and thus the respective stock valuations.

    • Still a wrothy read on how a stock's share price can evaporate in a day or two.

    • i can honestly say this will be 75 someday...easy. and people like you will be screaming to buy the pullback the whole way down while funds keep liquidating on you

      one the perception changes to realizing their biz model is faulty and on shaky ground, you won't even find buyers in this. momo will be gone. company will be forced to dilute shares and any tutes who buy it will be dumping as soon as they can as well.

    • What a great post. Hopefully irrationale buyers will read this first and take heed. Do not get caught up in hype, it can turn on a dime. As pointed out the current price of NFLX is not even remotely justified.
      Lets face it, the people that post here, myself included, can not collectively move a stock price one way or another. But when the big boys move, they can alter stock prices. It is obvious the Street has seen the obvious and the sentiment has gone negative against NFLX at these ridiculously high prices. The important part now is to not get stampeded on the down side, or use it as an opportunity to profut on the down side.
      The large money managers are not blind to the facts.
      Again great post. People need to stop getting emotional and stubborn and should look at facts and basic fundamentals. And not attack those that bring these points to light. It is like cutting your nose off to spite your face.

      Anyway great post, good luck to all.

    • I have been trying to point out these absurdities for two days now. See my posts earlier this morning noting some of the reasons longs are justifying this stock going to $300. It is almost laughable. Correction - it is laughable.

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