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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • prini19 prini19 Dec 4, 2010 11:48 AM Flag

    listen to the CEO, NFLX heading higher

    What analysts or any other outsiders say NEVER, NEVER trumps what the CEO says. In all my years of investing I have seen this happen over and over again. There are spectacular quarters, the CEO on the latest conference call says the future has never been brighter, and talks of global expansion. It later gets rumored down, then well, guess what happens next? It soars back to new highs and shorts get hammered. NFLX is a BUY right here.

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    • Reed Hastings has usually been pretty soft spoken, and you are right, in latest interviews, he has said that NFLX future prospects have never been stronger. He is approaching what he always dreamed of, global streaming.
      How many investors have begun to look at NFLX as a company that streams internationally, to many countries? How often are they going to announce the commencement of new streaming subscriptions in new countries, as their library of streaming content gets better and expands? One new country per month in 2011? Every couple of months? Even that would be huge. Take a breath of fresh air and realize that NFLX is going to stream internationally, and big chunks of new revenue will result.

      • 1 Reply to edub_poet
      • That is not what the CEO said. In fact, he warned (see posts above) of future margins because of the uncertainty of being able to continue and sustain growth rates, and with competition moving in from all directions. After the close on Friday, Google acquired a company to enhance their position in the streaming video segment (once again, see previous posts from the past three days).

    • This company has a great business model. I'm adding this week. Once it stops going down it will rocket back up. This is a healthy correction of 10-15%. Google did a similar thing last week. Then when the shorts are all trying to cover at the same time there will be another violent move upwards. $250 here we come.

      • 1 Reply to kupi23
      • Once again, we have someone on this message board trying to compare GOOG to NFLX. There is no comparison and here are the reasons Google went down last week (Google was not an overhyped pumped stock last week).

        Google announced earlier last week they were going to acquire a company called Groupon for $6 billion. As we all know, when a company announces a large M & A deal, generally, the company buying will experience a drop in the stock price. With the $6 billion acquisition announcement, traders took $8 billion of the valuation and capitalization of Google stock with the price per share down to $556. Investor sentiment was that $6 billion was too much to pay for Groupon, therefore the drop in stock price. Then, Groupon backed out of the deal and Google stock immediately started back up. In addition, there was a smaller announcement on the same day the Groupon acquisition was announced detailing the EU looking into Google's advertising practices. That was good for a $28 drop in one day. When Groupon backed out, that is when I bought back into GOOG (LEAPs) and also coincided that buy with the grabbing puts on NFLX.

        There is no comparison to why Google's stock dropped last week and why NFLX's stock dropped last week. The drops (and two-day recovery) for Google were for M & A reasons, not because it was an over-hyped, over-pumped stock with no business model for a company that is a one-trick pony.

    • Is this this same CEo who is unloading all his stock on you?

    • I did listen to the CEO. He warned of impending and future drops in margins and potential problems with sustaining current growth rates. That is pretty black and white to me with little gray area.

    • For anyone long, tell me why NFLX will not be another internet channel, another click on the remote in 3 years? Tell me what program will make people prefer them over the others and cause people to flock to them? Please explain how can today's steak and potatoes valuation continue on their bread and butter pricing plan? Oh, did I mention their cost of doing business is skyrocketing and they have inadequate cash to deal with it? Hope you like your already skimpy EPS diluted, because it's coming.

      • 2 Replies to tryinman11
      • I agree. These foolish longs think there's only NFLX in the world that can do video streaming. If NFLX is serious about international expansion, why it uses millions of cash to buy back shares ? Moreover, they really think Indians and Chinese and Japanese and other Asians will rush to sign up for NFLX with their meager incomes to watch old American movies they don't really understand ? If the Chinese video streaming company expands in the US with their old Chinese movies, how Americans will sign up for that ?
        NFLX will be lucky if it can continue to prosper in the US in the face of competitions from Blockbuster, HULU, VUDU, and upcoming competitors like APPL, GOOG, AMZN. My predition is that NFLX's subscriber growth will drop dramatically in 6-12 months. Next quarter will be the last quarter of growth, with the help of 1-month free subscription, which will exhaust the pool of movie fans even faster.
        Foreigners are more likely to go the movie theaters to watch new American releases rather than signing up for old crap movies.

      • Good point but it appears most of the longs on this board don't think of those things. They seem to forget that the cardinal rule of investing is that price follows earnings. The NFLX model is flawed, not for being unable to attract subscribers, but for turning profits/earnings going forward. That is the reason the stock retracts in price. That is what most professional traders are aware of and that is why if you cannot afford to lose profits then hedging your position is critical.

    • Listen to R Hartings ceo nflx talking about nflx future is equivalent to listen to a crook talking about his scam.

 
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