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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • value_ballast value_ballast Mar 11, 2011 10:32 AM Flag

    Let's review: NFLX is under pressure

    1. CFO quit at a point of inflection in the business - a time that would be a lot of fun and rewarding if NFLX were to accelerate its value creation. He voted with his feet and his wallet by dumping his stock sub $200. No one knew the economics better. No one. Not even Hastings.

    2. Insiders continue to sell stock hand over fist. I understand the comp model loads insiders with stock, but the selling is astounding still.

    3. The offline business where the company is dominant is becoming obsolete.

    4. The new streaming business is becoming more crowded each and every week. All offerings are improving and scaled competition is coming hard: AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, CSTR, Cable, Direct TV, ROVI, etc. NFLX moving from monopoly to perfect competition.

    5. NFLX continues to bicker and fight with its content providers. To be hated by a supplier is a problem. NFLX likely will conitnue to be nicked by studios.

    6. Rumors of a complete endaround by studios via ROVI continue.

    7. Lots of smoke of accounting levers being pulled unethically to pump the stock. See number 1.

    8. Quality of sell side firms pumping the stock continues to diminish. Morgan Stanley and GS have pulled strong buys. Pac Crest and Piper still pumping.

    9. Stock priced for perfection at $11B mkt cap. A sub is worth $100 in total. At 20mm, that is $2B. Add in 50% growth, and you get $3B which implies 60% over valuation.

    Good luck to all.

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    • dont forget AMZN launched, DTV launched 6K movies free, CMCSA launched ad campaign on FANCAST. Further SONY Crackle launched late last yr.

    • Also, forgot to add that gross margins are contracting. Gross margin contraction is one of the earlist indicators of future falling profitability.

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