Well Cruisin has been cruising the Caribbean, mixing a little work with pleasure - along with drinking some of my NFLX trading profits along the way and risking some on the roulette wheel! So now that I'm back to my trading turret - let me update you on my NFLX charts.
For those of you new to this thread who want to read the technical analysis for this incorrect sell recommendation here is a link to the original thread:
The chartist_view started this thread and I'll continue it as well.
I made my original buy targets on this here based on my TA.
If you took that advice you have a very good cost basis in the sub 195's. If you've let a little go along the way, good for you - profits not booked are not profits.
The chartists_view had you shorting on the way up at various points, in the 220 to 223's and above - I think that's not a very good idea for your bank account - and you are now under some serious serious water and they need to at least get it back to even to cover without a loss.
Don't listen to them! They are like the Greek mythology story of Medusa who sings to the sailors only to lure them into the rocks. And it's on the rocks they are (i.e. shorts) at the moment.
I've been telling you that my indicators are displaying to me that 52-week highs were dead-ahead. Well we hit new 52-week highs today! Again congrats to the longs that ignored the shorts cries of distress to get you to bale out. Clearly the wrong thing to do - at the time.
So what now - we've traded higher than the 52-week high but not closed above it (for now)?
Let's go through a little pro and con:
Volume is decreasing going into the 52-week high. It's been on a decreasing basis ever since we hit the 3/15 high and paused during the runup.
RSI daily has reentered the +70 levels which is many times indicative of a pause or trend reversal being nearby.
MACD on my Buy side are still positive but are coming down from the peaks around 28 & 29 March. I would call this one leaning bearishly.
Stochastics (long vs short) - Short-term my Stochastic signals are in the overbought ranges but not yet fully confirmed by the longer-term stochastics which are still rising. When I see both long and short in the Overbought category - then I consider liquidating my full position. So consider this now a cautionary signal to reduce your risk.
My proprietary MoneyStream reading on the daily chart is at all time highs which is confirming the bullish daily price action (i.e. it's not divergent to price). This best indicates to me that we'll conquer the 52-week high on a closing basis (i.e. eventually).
My proprietary TimeSegmented Volume (TSV) indicator crossed the signal line since 22 March and is still positive and rising (i.e. signal line and measurement lines are positive sloping. TSV is continuing to confirm the higher highs by making higher highs of it's own along the way. This supports the MoneyStream readings above.
So the TA picture is somewhat less supportive on the short-term. My take reduce risk and take gains. We could get a wack in here back to the 231/232 levels. On the long-term basis, I would be a buyer.
There will be short-term pullbacks (that's healthy for the longs), don't be discouraged the big money is still on the upside.
I said before that navigating the breakdown area from 234 and higher will likely be tricky. I fully expected a little give and take before we break solidly higher. So practicing good risk management you sell a little in the rips and buy it back on the dips.
I was wondering how the trading action would validate my call for a move back to the 50% fibanocci line on this great advance from 188.89 to 254.98 or the 221.94.
I think today's high (or at least what is shaping up so far as the high) set's the mark. We'll now see.
I think this sets in play the return to the 50% fibanocci point - it's destiny!
My indicator's are not currently supporting this advance - we need a daily divergence - a place where NFLX makes a new relative low and the indicators make a higher low.
The recent 225.30 low set a new low bar for MACD, Stochastics, Time Segmented Volume and MoneyStream. We need a new relative low below this mark to set the stage for the next uptrend!
The most recent drop from 249.62 set the wheels in motion for this play to work. And yesterday's 231.11 turn point is 18.51 points. This trading action minus today's high will define the turning point. If today's high holds - then that turning point will be in the vicinity of 222.39 or the vicinity of the 50% fibanocci line.
It also will break ever so little that seeming head and shoulders top that Sybs is pointing out on the chart. Remember a Head and Shoulders top isn't so until you see the breakage with increasing volume. I think we get the breakage which kills all the shakey longs and draws in all the salivating shorts and this baby reverses - Big Time!
Keep some powder dry for the break of the low 225's!!
If your looking for an area to bounce - your just about to get it.
Hourly RSI went sub-20's yesterday, today it's doing a repeat performance but other indicators are not confirming.
This is a bounce point readily approaching (to the upside) for a short-term trade.
I would say a 229.x to 230.x will be enough to get the reversal juices flowing.
I said in the earlier post that 240/241 was an area to short (we've actually made it back to the 242's now).
I'm adding to my short position here (via puts).
Hourly RSI, MACD and Stochastics are not confirming this move.
At over 1million shares in the first 30 minutes is impressive. On 28 April we had done almost 2.0 million shares by 11am and then the rollover began back to the start of the mornings lows.
That would be in the 237's for us today.
There is some downside regrouping/retracement to get out of the way.
I would be letting all of my common and calls go right here!
I took my own advice and sold out my calls acquired from the 225's today on the move into the 238/239 area.
I've also initiated short (via put) positions on the weekly 240/245 area.
I believe we have a retest in our future that will carry NFLX back to the 231/233 zone and thus make these put purchases a profitable trade. I would be more apt to sell these out on the approach to 233 than 231.
But I'm still looking to reload for the long side move yet to come. We'll see how the chart evolves before deciding the ultimate buy zone.
Not much of a gap-up open.
I would be a seller in here and wait to reload closer to 233.x.
Initiate shorts on any move in the 240/241 area for a move back to 231/233 area. Weekly puts would be an excellent option here.
That line I was talking about this morning...
Guess where that line was at the close - 237.00!
Well the daily chart is looking a bit better with this action.
If your a bull, you don't want a gap-up open tomorrow. If that's what we get - I'll be a seller!
NFLX is about to explode!! IMHO
There is a short-term downtrend line off 26 April top to 2 May. This line today sits at 237.2x, watch it!
A break back above this line will unleash the hounds!
There's 13 points of upside minimum on the break of this line - that's the 250's.
Shorts are about to become Road Kill, again!