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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • mghzhombre mghzhombre Apr 10, 2011 11:07 AM Flag

    LAWS OF EXPECTATIONS

    The weekly charts most followed by the long crowd shows a engulfing negative pattern which undermine the positive trend .

    MACD is in ventricular V FIB in need of counter shock ( Mo investors ) in order to put it back into a normal rhythm . Earnings are pertly much p.e.g. ed so I would say that the 12 laws of inaccurate perception are in play .

    O' Toole's commentary on Murphy's law which I like says that Murphy was an optimist . And you know how gravity can be , as a object falls it does so , so as to do the most damage . I believe it is best said this way , a buttered toast ( NFLX ) when falling will always fall on it's buttered side + negative expectations yield negative results positive expectations yield negative results .

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    • Sod dressed as a stock broker .

      Broker - Vi Agra will make you like Niagara but you have a weak heart & that's a contra-indicator . ( a concerned look )

      Murphy - ( distressed ) OH NO ! I want a heart transplant !

      Sod - ( with a devious look changes into a doctor's gown ) OK !

      latter...

      Murphy s law on sex & falling stocks - Don't go chasing water falls it's like hitting a wall .

    • City leaders were in dismay Monday evening as MURPHY runs so as not to answer questions about a hate crime against Sod .

      It was a rarity , Sod said , the Humanity of it I only wanted to turn blue !

      Murphy ( tangled up in blue ) I just wanted to be with you but found you a little white why lie !

      Sod - How come you laugh at me when I turn hue ?

      Curly Norma ( a friend of the two ) - I was shocked as I told the police , I thought the two were twins but he's off white !

      The Activists - Murphy is not black he's really a cute blue , true , I kept it quite for the two !

      Murphy with a can of spray paint paints " classified color really pallor "

      Sod pins on Murphy 's back " hate crimes for a dime " as the commissioners wanted to hear from two about the color scheme .

    • Here is "Boom and bust" system theory - mucho up = MuCHO Down

    • More you boom me up, more you bust me down!

    • In 2013 NFLX will be at a PE of 24 in 2012 PE will be at 36 @ 2011 is expected to have a PE of 53 based on consensuses numbers . Whisper so far is 1.18 which if made would bump PE to 52 .

      Murphy would say , " consensuses is tremendous but it gives rise to men-o-pause "

      • 2 Replies to mghzhombre
      • NFLX Has over one billions dollars coming due during 2011-14 for content that is not reported on balance sheet. $1Billion/52Million shares, equates to an almost $20 hit to eps (not even factoring other operating costs) over the next 3 years. Net income last year was $160Million and has been growing at a rate of about 40% YOY. When the bills start coming due for all this content ($651Million this year)margins will get crushed. Insiders know this which is why they have been unloading their stock. The 90% float held by institutions and mutual funds makes it easy to squeeze NFLX shorts. When the cash burn starts this year, everyone will be running for the exits.

      • MURPHY'S LAW on growth stocks or How to Confirm it is So ( HCS ) .

        Confirmation bias also called " my side story " , indicates that people have a tendency to favor information that confirms their preconceptions of growth stocks regardless . As a result , people only recall information selectively , and interpret it in a " my side story " way. This bias in particular makes for a emotional state of the issue and establishes a belief usually preferred . Sources that affirm are sought so are attitudes that psyche and rend a ambiguous yet rigorous intuit ionized evidence . Bias searches , have interpretation which recall explanations that create attitudes and platitudes . When one is in a disagreement over the growth potential , " my side story " becomes more extreme . Parties who are exposed to the same evidence bet their beliefs with perseverance in their irrational primacy . Data encountered which disagrees with the arbitrary growth stock premiss becomes a illusory correlation in which people perceive a association between them and the grit in their stacked argumentation .

        In conclusion plants grow stocks , flow , bow or get towed .

        Sincerely Murphy

        post-review :

        A series of experiments in the 1960s confirming the latter work explains the results in terms of a tendency to be one-sided . Ignoring alternatives by way of explanations which includes : wishful thinking , limited human capacity , pragmatical assessment , investigating in neutral , overconfidence , strange bed fellows , contrary evidence , delusional decisions , organizational need to join the military or run for political office . Careful it can grow on you ;))

    • Ergodic is over! Keynesian ascendancy is reborn now.

      • 1 Reply to hhn1911
      • Thomas Malthus lived during a time of crisis . He was originally a force for population control he cautioned that if you outpaced agricultural production ( a arithmetic progression ) population ( a controllable geometric progression ) would out strip the latter . He added that economic growth limits could be reached as natural resources where depleted . What Thomas saw as he grew up (1766–1834) ; A big event @ ~9 !
        April 18, 1775 - From a his home in Concord he could see General Gage's 700 British soldiers marching through on there way to destroy the colonists' weapons depot. From his perch in the attic that night he hears Paul Revere and William Dawes receive orders to goto Boston to warn the minute men . The alarm reaches Lexington about midnight as Paul warns Sam Adams and John Hancock who are hiding out there , the redcoats are coming !

        That dawn on April 19 about 70 armed Massachusetts militiamen or minutemen stand face to face on Lexington Green with the British advance guard as one of the Redcoat has a itchy finger and pulls the trigger in a nervous twitch as a 'shot heard around the world' was fired . The American Revolution starts . Thomas sees the catastrophe of war at a early age . Malthusian theories take their form . He states it's all about revolution for a modern world as it grows it will face various limiting factors such as resources , population , wars , famine , natural unnatural disasters etc. will limit growth .

        Keynesian has at it's heart the Malthusian theories .

        Murphy's Law of Memories - memory is selective till your elected then it's just ejected .

        Translation for us doe doe's , memory is short lived .

    • Herd mentality as described in a conversation with Murphy & Sod as both talked about a herd of cows .
      Murphy talks to Sod while examining the herd of cows' mentality & includes Sod a friend in the trend .

      Sod - it's just a fashion .

      Murphy - in cows' apparel, taste in music, or home decor ?

      Sod - ( smiles ) In social psychology or in the study of lack of related intelligence ?

      Murphy - Cow wisdom is a decentralized decision made by that Bull with the horns .

      Sod - How content hides ( chuckles )

      Murphy - So the herd simply cannot go wrong , it will anyway ?

      Sod - Left to themselves, cows , trend to go from bad to worse .

      Murphy - ( both laughing ) Whose the optimist now ?

      Sod - ( pulling the Bulls tail ) RUN we're under the gun !

      Murphy - ( while running ) Did you know that the buddy system is essential to our survival ?

      Sod - Yeah ! I know it gives that Bull somebody else to shoot at !

      Both LOL as they head for the fence .

 
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