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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

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  • mghzhombre mghzhombre Apr 12, 2011 3:23 PM Flag

    LAWS OF EXPECTATIONS

    In 2013 NFLX will be at a PE of 24 in 2012 PE will be at 36 @ 2011 is expected to have a PE of 53 based on consensuses numbers . Whisper so far is 1.18 which if made would bump PE to 52 .

    Murphy would say , " consensuses is tremendous but it gives rise to men-o-pause "

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    • NFLX Has over one billions dollars coming due during 2011-14 for content that is not reported on balance sheet. $1Billion/52Million shares, equates to an almost $20 hit to eps (not even factoring other operating costs) over the next 3 years. Net income last year was $160Million and has been growing at a rate of about 40% YOY. When the bills start coming due for all this content ($651Million this year)margins will get crushed. Insiders know this which is why they have been unloading their stock. The 90% float held by institutions and mutual funds makes it easy to squeeze NFLX shorts. When the cash burn starts this year, everyone will be running for the exits.

      • 2 Replies to marketman219
      • Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities has been worth $100,045,000 in 2010 ; $84,641,000 in 2009 ; then $176,635,000 in 2008 ; Averaged out that works out to about
        $10,036,694 per month which dilutes stockholders equity .

        Murphy's law states if you burn something odds are the rate of return is usually quoted in terms of trash and when the rate of trash begins to exceed the forecast usually then a course in how to reduce the trash is most appropriate .

      • Warner Brothers has Digital Everywhere . Wonder if the movies well sell for .99 ? It brings DVDs, the movies on a hard drive, digital films from iTunes, Netflix queues, & digital Amazon purchases, into one easily-sortable library. When you click on a title it shows you all your options - rent or buy a digital file from iTunes, buy a DVD from Amazon , stream it on Netflix or add it to your Netflix queue. Eventually Warner Brothers plans to add a range of other options - like rent or buy from them ! Warner Brothers is the first and only studio to rent movies on Facebook .

        Warner Brothers will get away with linking to content from its rivals . Should launch within a few months. Could be a game changer .

    • MURPHY'S LAW on growth stocks or How to Confirm it is So ( HCS ) .

      Confirmation bias also called " my side story " , indicates that people have a tendency to favor information that confirms their preconceptions of growth stocks regardless . As a result , people only recall information selectively , and interpret it in a " my side story " way. This bias in particular makes for a emotional state of the issue and establishes a belief usually preferred . Sources that affirm are sought so are attitudes that psyche and rend a ambiguous yet rigorous intuit ionized evidence . Bias searches , have interpretation which recall explanations that create attitudes and platitudes . When one is in a disagreement over the growth potential , " my side story " becomes more extreme . Parties who are exposed to the same evidence bet their beliefs with perseverance in their irrational primacy . Data encountered which disagrees with the arbitrary growth stock premiss becomes a illusory correlation in which people perceive a association between them and the grit in their stacked argumentation .

      In conclusion plants grow stocks , flow , bow or get towed .

      Sincerely Murphy

      post-review :

      A series of experiments in the 1960s confirming the latter work explains the results in terms of a tendency to be one-sided . Ignoring alternatives by way of explanations which includes : wishful thinking , limited human capacity , pragmatical assessment , investigating in neutral , overconfidence , strange bed fellows , contrary evidence , delusional decisions , organizational need to join the military or run for political office . Careful it can grow on you ;))

      • 1 Reply to mghzhombre
      • Streaming movies is not a rocket science endeavor . It's not a proprietary exclusive techno , anybody with a little know can stream take Shoutcast . A little Internet broadcasting tool used by many for audio/video streaming . It can be used by you , radio stations or end users , to bring audio / video content ( your own movies ) to an Internet audience ( your buds ) . Technology for audience audio/video delivery is free found on the net . Fix’s Achilles tendon will it bend them ?

        Murphy Law on buy outs .

        1st. - If they shout buy out don't let the door hit your ass as it usually will sit on it's ass fast .
        2nd. - If you ignore the 1st. your gonna thirst so ignore that burst could be worst .

 
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